Today the macro data calendar is quite packed, split into two waves.
At 3 p.m., China has a data-dense window: retail sales, industrial value added above designated size, 70-city home prices, plus a press conference from the State Council Information Office. With these four releases together, they basically cover China’s consumption side, production side, and the real estate side all at once. If the data comes in above expectations or clearly below, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks will react immediately, and risk sentiment may also spill over into the crypto market.
In the evening, in U.S. time: at 8:30, Canada CPI and the New York Fed’s manufacturing index; at 10:00, the NAHB housing market index. For crypto, this U.S. set of data is more critical. The New York Fed manufacturing index is a monthly high-frequency indicator that reflects the current “temperature” of the U.S. real economy, while NAHB gauges developers’ confidence. If both are relatively weak at the same time, and rate-cut expectations also heat up, that’s generally supportive for risk assets; otherwise, if they’re strong, they may put pressure on them.
For people trading today, monitoring the market will be pretty tiring. In the afternoon, you’ll be watching China data to gauge Asia-Pacific sentiment; in the evening, you’ll wait for the U.S. data to determine the direction for the next overnight session. I suggest not going all-in on a directional bet before the data is released—on days like this, volatility is usually not low.
At 3 p.m., China has a data-dense window: retail sales, industrial value added above designated size, 70-city home prices, plus a press conference from the State Council Information Office. With these four releases together, they basically cover China’s consumption side, production side, and the real estate side all at once. If the data comes in above expectations or clearly below, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks will react immediately, and risk sentiment may also spill over into the crypto market.
In the evening, in U.S. time: at 8:30, Canada CPI and the New York Fed’s manufacturing index; at 10:00, the NAHB housing market index. For crypto, this U.S. set of data is more critical. The New York Fed manufacturing index is a monthly high-frequency indicator that reflects the current “temperature” of the U.S. real economy, while NAHB gauges developers’ confidence. If both are relatively weak at the same time, and rate-cut expectations also heat up, that’s generally supportive for risk assets; otherwise, if they’re strong, they may put pressure on them.
For people trading today, monitoring the market will be pretty tiring. In the afternoon, you’ll be watching China data to gauge Asia-Pacific sentiment; in the evening, you’ll wait for the U.S. data to determine the direction for the next overnight session. I suggest not going all-in on a directional bet before the data is released—on days like this, volatility is usually not low.