HEMI is around 0.0065u right now—just finished a roller-coaster ride: within three days it surged from 0.0046 to 0.009, nearly doubling; then it turned and in the next 24 hours fell back by nearly 10%. I’ll state the conclusion first: I’m not chasing.
First, let’s look at the real direction of the money. Spot trading saw a net outflow of more than 3 billion coins in 3 hours. Among the 12 K-lines, not a single one is positive. Even large orders have been withdrawing continuously. The price bounced back a bit from 0.0056, but during the rebound spot has kept moving outward. So the “quality” of this counter-rally is worth questioning.
The futures side is even more split. Open interest shrank by almost 15% in a day—dropping into the short’s capitulation zone—essentially wiping out the leveraged long positions from the previous down leg. Then, suddenly, the aggressive buying surged again, and the whales’ positions are still adding. It looks like short-term funds want to push it higher once more. The question is: with buys on the leveraged side and sells on the spot side, who will ultimately hold up? On-chain, the long/short leverage ratio has shot up to more than 340x. All the longs are squeezed on one side—once the wind shifts, volatility spikes.
There’s another structural issue that’s hard to ignore: the fully circulating supply ratio is under 10%, and the market cap is only about 6 million dollars. Roughly 90% of the chips are still locked up and not in the market. Small caps can tell stories easily, but any new supply is enough to give the price a hard time—volatility is naturally amplified.
In plain terms, this is a technical counter-rally after a crash, not trend repair. Spot is still running out, leverage is squeezed, and the overhang is still hanging. Chasing longs from this point has poor cost-effectiveness. If you want to get involved, wait for a real pullback and stabilization—only when spot capital returns. I’ll step aside for now.
#hemi $HEMI
First, let’s look at the real direction of the money. Spot trading saw a net outflow of more than 3 billion coins in 3 hours. Among the 12 K-lines, not a single one is positive. Even large orders have been withdrawing continuously. The price bounced back a bit from 0.0056, but during the rebound spot has kept moving outward. So the “quality” of this counter-rally is worth questioning.
The futures side is even more split. Open interest shrank by almost 15% in a day—dropping into the short’s capitulation zone—essentially wiping out the leveraged long positions from the previous down leg. Then, suddenly, the aggressive buying surged again, and the whales’ positions are still adding. It looks like short-term funds want to push it higher once more. The question is: with buys on the leveraged side and sells on the spot side, who will ultimately hold up? On-chain, the long/short leverage ratio has shot up to more than 340x. All the longs are squeezed on one side—once the wind shifts, volatility spikes.
There’s another structural issue that’s hard to ignore: the fully circulating supply ratio is under 10%, and the market cap is only about 6 million dollars. Roughly 90% of the chips are still locked up and not in the market. Small caps can tell stories easily, but any new supply is enough to give the price a hard time—volatility is naturally amplified.
In plain terms, this is a technical counter-rally after a crash, not trend repair. Spot is still running out, leverage is squeezed, and the overhang is still hanging. Chasing longs from this point has poor cost-effectiveness. If you want to get involved, wait for a real pullback and stabilization—only when spot capital returns. I’ll step aside for now.
#hemi $HEMI
