Earlier Bird News 8.17｜Cotton’s monthly trend line has moved
【Today’s Feature: The future narrative of cotton】
$COTTON
The monthly line closed at 0.8533 (+11%), standing above fib 1 at 0.7497
In 2011, it surged past 2.254; in 2022, it surged past 1.3
This looks like the third time a major-level launch is lining up
What I see for the future:
The USDA August report puts the global stocks-to-use ratio at 56.7%
Demand is increasing, inventories are falling—tight supply is being made obvious
In Texas it’s dry, Xinjiang is hot, and the quality rate of American cotton is 42%→40%
Once the September rate-cut cycle starts, money has to find a low spot
The agricultural products that have been lying flat for three years—that’s the low spot
If the script plays out:
0.85 → 1.04 (1.618 extension) → 1.22 (2 extension)
Looking back next year, anything below 0.75 is a bottom
This is on the monthly trend level—don’t rush; watch it week by week
【Market + Commodities】
BTC 63064, ETH 1892—sideways
Gold is back above 4400 (9:19)
WTI crude is near 82
【The serial】
$WLD 0.3675 (+5.2%): The more it moves, the more real it feels—one step closer to 1 dollar
$HEMI Pullback to 0.0061: Just reached the upper edge of my add-on zone—order placed to keep getting filled
【This Week】
Central bank week: FOMC minutes in the early hours of Thursday + Jackson Hole (around Friday)
A data vacuum until Thursday—hold off on the urge to trade
#棉花 #大宗商品 #美联储
【Today’s Feature: The future narrative of cotton】
$COTTON
The monthly line closed at 0.8533 (+11%), standing above fib 1 at 0.7497
In 2011, it surged past 2.254; in 2022, it surged past 1.3
This looks like the third time a major-level launch is lining up
What I see for the future:
The USDA August report puts the global stocks-to-use ratio at 56.7%
Demand is increasing, inventories are falling—tight supply is being made obvious
In Texas it’s dry, Xinjiang is hot, and the quality rate of American cotton is 42%→40%
Once the September rate-cut cycle starts, money has to find a low spot
The agricultural products that have been lying flat for three years—that’s the low spot
If the script plays out:
0.85 → 1.04 (1.618 extension) → 1.22 (2 extension)
Looking back next year, anything below 0.75 is a bottom
This is on the monthly trend level—don’t rush; watch it week by week
【Market + Commodities】
BTC 63064, ETH 1892—sideways
Gold is back above 4400 (9:19)
WTI crude is near 82
【The serial】
$WLD 0.3675 (+5.2%): The more it moves, the more real it feels—one step closer to 1 dollar
$HEMI Pullback to 0.0061: Just reached the upper edge of my add-on zone—order placed to keep getting filled
【This Week】
Central bank week: FOMC minutes in the early hours of Thursday + Jackson Hole (around Friday)
A data vacuum until Thursday—hold off on the urge to trade
#棉花 #大宗商品 #美联储