📊 ECONOMIC NEWS & BTC — MORNING 17/08/2026
Overall status: 🟡 NEUTRAL, slightly leaning RISK-ON but weak
Macro Score: 55/100, a slight decrease from 57/100 in the previous edition.
The key new point this morning is that the USD remains weak, but the 10Y yield is still high; oil is still tight, and BTC has not yet received ETF support due to the weekend with no trading.
Fed & Interest rates: The Fed still keeps the target rate at 3.50%–3.75%. After a run of softer U.S. data, the market is currently pricing about a 66.9% chance that the Fed will hold rates steady in September—implying about a 33% chance of a rate hike. Compared with the previous edition, expectations of a rate increase have not worsened much, but they have not clearly decreased either.
Inflation: July CPI rose 0.1% MoM and 3.4% YoY; core CPI rose 0.2% MoM and 2.5% YoY. This is still a positive sign because inflation has not flared back up. However, the Fed continues to emphasize that inflation is still above the 2% target, especially with risks from energy not yet disappearing.
U.S. Jobs: There is no newer payroll data than the July report. The current picture is still clearly that the labor market is cooling, with July payrolls down by 23,000 jobs. This is the main factor causing the market to reduce expectations that the Fed will need to raise rates immediately.
DXY: This morning, DXY fell further by about 0.1% to 99.519, near the low area for the month. This is good for BTC: the weaker the USD, the lower the pressure on risk assets.
Bond yields: This is still the point I personally don't like. Over the weekend, the 10-year Treasury yield returned to around 4.69–4.70%. Even though expectations for a Fed hike have eased, the long-end bond market remains focused on inflation, oil, and bond supply. Therefore, financial liquidity has not truly shifted to a strong Risk-On yet.
$BTC
Overall status: 🟡 NEUTRAL, slightly leaning RISK-ON but weak
Macro Score: 55/100, a slight decrease from 57/100 in the previous edition.
The key new point this morning is that the USD remains weak, but the 10Y yield is still high; oil is still tight, and BTC has not yet received ETF support due to the weekend with no trading.
Fed & Interest rates: The Fed still keeps the target rate at 3.50%–3.75%. After a run of softer U.S. data, the market is currently pricing about a 66.9% chance that the Fed will hold rates steady in September—implying about a 33% chance of a rate hike. Compared with the previous edition, expectations of a rate increase have not worsened much, but they have not clearly decreased either.
Inflation: July CPI rose 0.1% MoM and 3.4% YoY; core CPI rose 0.2% MoM and 2.5% YoY. This is still a positive sign because inflation has not flared back up. However, the Fed continues to emphasize that inflation is still above the 2% target, especially with risks from energy not yet disappearing.
U.S. Jobs: There is no newer payroll data than the July report. The current picture is still clearly that the labor market is cooling, with July payrolls down by 23,000 jobs. This is the main factor causing the market to reduce expectations that the Fed will need to raise rates immediately.
DXY: This morning, DXY fell further by about 0.1% to 99.519, near the low area for the month. This is good for BTC: the weaker the USD, the lower the pressure on risk assets.
Bond yields: This is still the point I personally don't like. Over the weekend, the 10-year Treasury yield returned to around 4.69–4.70%. Even though expectations for a Fed hike have eased, the long-end bond market remains focused on inflation, oil, and bond supply. Therefore, financial liquidity has not truly shifted to a strong Risk-On yet.
$BTC