XMR is now around 118.7u. In the past hour, it pulled up more than 6 times. I just saw the short moving average get back above again. But for this kind of rebound, I don’t plan to chase it.
First, the strong parts: the spot market has flipped green over the past 24 hours. The aggressive buy side is in control, and the price is only a small step away from the 24-hour high. On the short term, there really are people accumulating—it's bounced back more than 4 points on the 4-hour chart.
The problem is the money. In the past 3 hours, there hasn’t been a single net inflow candle among the 12 spot candles. Even big orders have brought in zero—no money at all. Instead, funds are withdrawing. Net outflow over the last 3 hours is nearly 100,000u. The rise so far was lifted upward, but real money has already left the scene.
The futures side is the same story: open interest hasn’t kept up—it has even contracted slightly. The basis dropped by more than 70% in one shot, and the contract side basically hasn’t provided any backup. On the whale side, the long account ratio is still moving downward. The long-to-short position ratio has been pushed below 1, and the bearish stance hasn’t changed.
In plain terms, this is short-term funds lifting the price, but big money hasn’t stepped in. The spot is still quite far from the historical highs, and while the rebound draws some spectators, the follow-through/acceptance is a big issue. Chasing long here isn’t a great value proposition. I’ll observe first—wait for a pullback and see whether it can hold, or wait until the fund flows truly turn positive before taking action.
#xmr $XMR
First, the strong parts: the spot market has flipped green over the past 24 hours. The aggressive buy side is in control, and the price is only a small step away from the 24-hour high. On the short term, there really are people accumulating—it's bounced back more than 4 points on the 4-hour chart.
The problem is the money. In the past 3 hours, there hasn’t been a single net inflow candle among the 12 spot candles. Even big orders have brought in zero—no money at all. Instead, funds are withdrawing. Net outflow over the last 3 hours is nearly 100,000u. The rise so far was lifted upward, but real money has already left the scene.
The futures side is the same story: open interest hasn’t kept up—it has even contracted slightly. The basis dropped by more than 70% in one shot, and the contract side basically hasn’t provided any backup. On the whale side, the long account ratio is still moving downward. The long-to-short position ratio has been pushed below 1, and the bearish stance hasn’t changed.
In plain terms, this is short-term funds lifting the price, but big money hasn’t stepped in. The spot is still quite far from the historical highs, and while the rebound draws some spectators, the follow-through/acceptance is a big issue. Chasing long here isn’t a great value proposition. I’ll observe first—wait for a pullback and see whether it can hold, or wait until the fund flows truly turn positive before taking action.
#xmr $XMR