$HOME Now around 0.00745, it just bounced off at about 0.0072 and then stopped falling, but this rebound doesn’t feel very solid to me.
First, let’s talk about the repairs that are visible: the 1-hour chart has flipped back to red, the 4-hour has pulled back, and in the spot order book the buy walls are pressing above the sell walls by more than twice. The contract funding rate is still negative—shorts are paying money. From the order book, it’s true that there are buyers picking things up at the low end.
The problem is that the capital flow hasn’t caught up. In the spot market, over the last 3 hours there hasn’t been a single bullish candle with net inflow—12 consecutive candles are all red, and large orders are also net outflow, keeping pressure on the move. When the price pops up, the big money doesn’t come back—instead it’s reducing positions. This kind of rebound looks more like a dead-cat bounce after oversold conditions, not a fresh re-entry by capital.
The futures side also confirms it: big accounts’ long positions are撤退, open interest hasn’t expanded to cooperate, and the RSI is still around 40—weak overall—with price sitting below all moving averages. The only bright spot is the oversold zone. There may still be a rebound, but a rebound and a reversal are two different things.
So I won’t chase at this level. With buy walls that are only shallow depth—like twice the sell side—it can’t withstand sustained net outflow. It may stall around 0.0076. If you really want to watch it, wait for two things: first, spot large orders turn back to positive net flow; second, the price closes back above the moving averages. Until then, it’s more comfortable to stand by than to act.
#home $HOME
First, let’s talk about the repairs that are visible: the 1-hour chart has flipped back to red, the 4-hour has pulled back, and in the spot order book the buy walls are pressing above the sell walls by more than twice. The contract funding rate is still negative—shorts are paying money. From the order book, it’s true that there are buyers picking things up at the low end.
The problem is that the capital flow hasn’t caught up. In the spot market, over the last 3 hours there hasn’t been a single bullish candle with net inflow—12 consecutive candles are all red, and large orders are also net outflow, keeping pressure on the move. When the price pops up, the big money doesn’t come back—instead it’s reducing positions. This kind of rebound looks more like a dead-cat bounce after oversold conditions, not a fresh re-entry by capital.
The futures side also confirms it: big accounts’ long positions are撤退, open interest hasn’t expanded to cooperate, and the RSI is still around 40—weak overall—with price sitting below all moving averages. The only bright spot is the oversold zone. There may still be a rebound, but a rebound and a reversal are two different things.
So I won’t chase at this level. With buy walls that are only shallow depth—like twice the sell side—it can’t withstand sustained net outflow. It may stall around 0.0076. If you really want to watch it, wait for two things: first, spot large orders turn back to positive net flow; second, the price closes back above the moving averages. Until then, it’s more comfortable to stand by than to act.
#home $HOME