ACE is currently around 0.136u. I won’t be jumping in on this move. To put it plainly, the momentum from earlier can’t be sustained anymore.
First, let’s sort out how this round of market action came about: in July, it was driven from a low of 0.06 all the way up to 0.38, and that was mainly thanks to an exchange event. When the event was still hot, sentiment could hold the price up. But now the hype has cooled off. In the last 24 hours, it has already fallen 12 percentage points. The 4-hour and daily timeframes are pointing downward across the board. For an event-driven market, once the catalyst is gone, the price has to find new anchors.
What worries me even more is that money is flowing out. Spot has seen a net outflow of more than 60 million over three hours. All 12 candlesticks are net outflows—none of them are positive. Micro-cap coins hate this kind of “bloodletting.” When it drops, no one steps in, the lows get ground down and become increasingly fragile. Any rebound is just handing out bus tickets to someone else.
Of course, there are some signs in the order book that could support a rebound: the buy wall is twice as thick as the sell wall, the funding rate is still negative, and the shorts have put on a fair amount of pressure—so there’s a possibility of short squeeze for the late shorts at any time. But these are all at the level of positioning and tug-of-war; they can’t sustain a trend. At most, they’re enough for fluctuations over one or two candlesticks. If you get the direction wrong, you’ll get hit back and forth.
In plain terms, this is a micro-cap coin with a multi-million-dollar scale—one week can produce a swing of nearly 4x. Chasing longs is basically feeding fuel to the rebound; chasing shorts also means you have to watch out for getting squeezed. At this point, I choose to watch, not act.
Wait until the spot outflow stops and the price moves back above the moving averages. Only then we can talk. Chasing it now doesn’t offer a good enough risk-reward ratio.
#ace $ACE
First, let’s sort out how this round of market action came about: in July, it was driven from a low of 0.06 all the way up to 0.38, and that was mainly thanks to an exchange event. When the event was still hot, sentiment could hold the price up. But now the hype has cooled off. In the last 24 hours, it has already fallen 12 percentage points. The 4-hour and daily timeframes are pointing downward across the board. For an event-driven market, once the catalyst is gone, the price has to find new anchors.
What worries me even more is that money is flowing out. Spot has seen a net outflow of more than 60 million over three hours. All 12 candlesticks are net outflows—none of them are positive. Micro-cap coins hate this kind of “bloodletting.” When it drops, no one steps in, the lows get ground down and become increasingly fragile. Any rebound is just handing out bus tickets to someone else.
Of course, there are some signs in the order book that could support a rebound: the buy wall is twice as thick as the sell wall, the funding rate is still negative, and the shorts have put on a fair amount of pressure—so there’s a possibility of short squeeze for the late shorts at any time. But these are all at the level of positioning and tug-of-war; they can’t sustain a trend. At most, they’re enough for fluctuations over one or two candlesticks. If you get the direction wrong, you’ll get hit back and forth.
In plain terms, this is a micro-cap coin with a multi-million-dollar scale—one week can produce a swing of nearly 4x. Chasing longs is basically feeding fuel to the rebound; chasing shorts also means you have to watch out for getting squeezed. At this point, I choose to watch, not act.
Wait until the spot outflow stops and the price moves back above the moving averages. Only then we can talk. Chasing it now doesn’t offer a good enough risk-reward ratio.
#ace $ACE