LINK is now around 9.38u. Last time at 8.82, I said the direction was slightly biased to the upside—don’t rush to chase it. After a week it pulled up to 9.76 and then came back here; the direction is still right. But when it has risen to this level, the short-term is starting to show something worth paying attention to.
First, let’s talk about the mid-term capital—it’s still here. In the last three hours, the spot has had 12 bars in a row of net inflow; big orders are still coming in, and the perpetual funding rate is still positive. The longs haven’t pulled out. This move from 8.16 up to here is backed by real buying—not just a short-seller priced rebound.
The issue is the short term. The 15-minute capital has already turned to outflows. On the spot side, the sell amount is actively selling at nearly twice the speed of the buys. In the order book, the 20 best sell levels are clearly thicker than the buy levels. Meanwhile, price has been pushed down below the 15-minute moving average. The four-hour chart is still grinding lower.
Technically, RSI and MFI are both in the overbought zone, and volatility is increasing—after rising too much, this kind of overshoot is normal.
In plain terms: the mid-term money is still there, but this short-term momentum looks a bit used up. Chasing in now is basically hard-catching a pullback. Open interest on the contracts is also shrinking slightly; short-term longs are starting to close positions.
So my stance is the same as last time: the bias is still upward, but don’t chase at this level. Wait for a pullback first, and see if the funds can absorb it. If they can, then go up—much more comfortable.
#link $LINK
First, let’s talk about the mid-term capital—it’s still here. In the last three hours, the spot has had 12 bars in a row of net inflow; big orders are still coming in, and the perpetual funding rate is still positive. The longs haven’t pulled out. This move from 8.16 up to here is backed by real buying—not just a short-seller priced rebound.
The issue is the short term. The 15-minute capital has already turned to outflows. On the spot side, the sell amount is actively selling at nearly twice the speed of the buys. In the order book, the 20 best sell levels are clearly thicker than the buy levels. Meanwhile, price has been pushed down below the 15-minute moving average. The four-hour chart is still grinding lower.
Technically, RSI and MFI are both in the overbought zone, and volatility is increasing—after rising too much, this kind of overshoot is normal.
In plain terms: the mid-term money is still there, but this short-term momentum looks a bit used up. Chasing in now is basically hard-catching a pullback. Open interest on the contracts is also shrinking slightly; short-term longs are starting to close positions.
So my stance is the same as last time: the bias is still upward, but don’t chase at this level. Wait for a pullback first, and see if the funds can absorb it. If they can, then go up—much more comfortable.
#link $LINK