ADA is now around 0.175u, basically grinding right near the low of this range at 0.1744. First, the conclusion: in the short term I’m mildly bearish, but at this level I won’t actively chase shorts. I’m more focused on not touching long positions and waiting for a rebound.
The strongest signal is the spot funding. In the past three hours there has been a net outflow of more than 56 million, and in twelve candles there hasn’t been a single net inflow candle. The large orders over the past five candles have all been withdrawn, totaling more than 5 million. This type of capital keeps leaving—this isn’t just a one- or two-day fluctuation. Every time the price rebounds, this money will press it back.
On the futures side, it’s not standing with the bulls either. In the active order book, the sell-side volume has been higher than the buy-side volume, and the basis is still in a slight discount. The only thing that can be considered support is that the whale account’s long share is still above 60%. But interestingly, the position share has been decreasing over the past few hours—even though the account still holds longs, its position is being reduced. Combined with open interest continuously falling, the order book looks like someone is cutting positions and exiting, not adding more.
Technically, MACD and the stochastic indicators are both bearish. Price is below the moving averages, and around 0.18 is resistance. The only “good” part is that the level is already low and the market has dropped quite a bit; the buy orders in the book are also thicker than the sells, so the downtrend looks like it might be nearing exhaustion. That said, chasing a short directly at this point generally isn’t great risk-reward.
My plan: don’t touch longs. Either look for a short when the price rebounds toward the moving averages, or wait until spot funding returns and price reclaims 0.18 with volume, then reassess. Right now, don’t rush to bottom—let the funding show its direction first.
#ada $ADA
The strongest signal is the spot funding. In the past three hours there has been a net outflow of more than 56 million, and in twelve candles there hasn’t been a single net inflow candle. The large orders over the past five candles have all been withdrawn, totaling more than 5 million. This type of capital keeps leaving—this isn’t just a one- or two-day fluctuation. Every time the price rebounds, this money will press it back.
On the futures side, it’s not standing with the bulls either. In the active order book, the sell-side volume has been higher than the buy-side volume, and the basis is still in a slight discount. The only thing that can be considered support is that the whale account’s long share is still above 60%. But interestingly, the position share has been decreasing over the past few hours—even though the account still holds longs, its position is being reduced. Combined with open interest continuously falling, the order book looks like someone is cutting positions and exiting, not adding more.
Technically, MACD and the stochastic indicators are both bearish. Price is below the moving averages, and around 0.18 is resistance. The only “good” part is that the level is already low and the market has dropped quite a bit; the buy orders in the book are also thicker than the sells, so the downtrend looks like it might be nearing exhaustion. That said, chasing a short directly at this point generally isn’t great risk-reward.
My plan: don’t touch longs. Either look for a short when the price rebounds toward the moving averages, or wait until spot funding returns and price reclaims 0.18 with volume, then reassess. Right now, don’t rush to bottom—let the funding show its direction first.
#ada $ADA