8.17 Morning Outlook:
This rally, which climbed steadily from 4,000 to 4,450, has its core driving force in the broad cooling of expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes. As the July CPI and PPI data continued to come in on the weaker side, and retail sales data proved unexpectedly sluggish, market expectations for a September rate hike have been sharply reduced to slightly above 30%. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index remains under pressure and hovers below 100, and upward momentum in U.S. Treasury yields has also been weak. These macro softening factors provide the most solid foundation for the bullish trend.
On the weekly level, a breakout has been completed with a strong bullish candle, and the medium-term upward channel has already been established. The prior resistance level at 4,300 has successfully turned into strong support. As long as this level is not effectively broken, the overall bullish momentum is unlikely to end easily. However, the short-term price action also faces clear resistance tests. Selling pressure near the 4,450 area is heavy; both attempts failed to hold ground effectively. In addition, after consecutive upward pushes, daily and weekly technical indicators have entered overbought conditions, and the pressure for taking profits in the near term is gradually building.
On Monday, expect a rally-led move
Around 4,395-4,420, watch the key resistance level at 4,440
🪵 Target: Near 4,350-4,330-4,300 $XAU $BTC #COW24小时上涨55.77%
This rally, which climbed steadily from 4,000 to 4,450, has its core driving force in the broad cooling of expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes. As the July CPI and PPI data continued to come in on the weaker side, and retail sales data proved unexpectedly sluggish, market expectations for a September rate hike have been sharply reduced to slightly above 30%. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index remains under pressure and hovers below 100, and upward momentum in U.S. Treasury yields has also been weak. These macro softening factors provide the most solid foundation for the bullish trend.
On the weekly level, a breakout has been completed with a strong bullish candle, and the medium-term upward channel has already been established. The prior resistance level at 4,300 has successfully turned into strong support. As long as this level is not effectively broken, the overall bullish momentum is unlikely to end easily. However, the short-term price action also faces clear resistance tests. Selling pressure near the 4,450 area is heavy; both attempts failed to hold ground effectively. In addition, after consecutive upward pushes, daily and weekly technical indicators have entered overbought conditions, and the pressure for taking profits in the near term is gradually building.
On Monday, expect a rally-led move
Around 4,395-4,420, watch the key resistance level at 4,440
🪵 Target: Near 4,350-4,330-4,300 $XAU $BTC #COW24小时上涨55.77%