Metaplanet (TSE: 3350), listed in Tokyo, revised its full-year 2025 earnings forecast on January 26. The company reported a loss from the decline in Bitcoin of 104.6 billion yen (678 million dollars) while raising its operating profit guidance.
The results present an instant pressure test for the digital asset cabinet model, which faced severe doubts throughout late 2025.
The decline in bitcoin is a non-cash accounting adjustment
Despite the main loss, the company raised its revenue expectations for fiscal year 2025 to ¥8.9 billion ($57.7 million), an increase of 31% from its previous estimate of ¥6.8 billion (¥6.8 billion). Operating income rose by 33.8% to reach ¥6.29 billion ($40.8 million). Bitcoin revenues drove stronger-than-expected income generation for this upgrade.
The company marked its bitcoin shares for marketing at the end of each quarter according to Japanese accounting standards. The resulting decline was recorded as a non-operating expense, leading to a consolidated net loss of ¥76.6 billion ($497 million).
Metaplanet confirmed that this impairment "is merely an accounting adjustment reflecting temporary price fluctuations at the end of the quarter and does not directly affect cash flows or business operations."
The company also indicated an increase in the foreign exchange market of ¥22.6 billion ($147 million) due to the depreciation of the yen, which partially offset the bitcoin loss. The net decline in the net trading value of bitcoin recorded in fixed assets is approximately ¥82 billion ($532 million).
Dylan Leclerc, Director of Bitcoin Strategy at Metaplanet, described the results as showing "strong momentum in core operations with high transparency," noting that the impairment loss is non-cash while the bitcoin holding increased to 35,102 coins.
20-fold increase in bitcoin holdings
Metaplanet's bitcoin treasury grew significantly throughout the fiscal year 2025. Holdings reached 35,102 bitcoins by the end of 2025, up from 1,762 bitcoins the previous year — an increase of nearly 20 times.
The BTC yield—measuring bitcoin growth per fully diluted share—reached 568% for the year. Management noted that "capital strategies and bitcoin acquisition programs exceeded initial targets."
During the fourth quarter, Metaplanet expanded its funding sources through the issuance of class B convertible preferred stock ("Mercury") and established a credit facility of $500 million, allowing for more flexible capital deployment and less reliance on stock price levels.
Test case for the struggling DAT model
The massive shaped planet has been the focus of the Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) discussion since the model's unveiling in late 2025. In October, the company's value for companies fell below its bitcoin reserves for the first time, indicating a global decline in investor appetite for the sector. The mNAV index—a measure comparing market value to digital currency holdings—fell below 1.0x, and the stock dropped about 80% from its peak in June at ¥1,930.
Critics like Jim Chanos dismissed the DAT model as "financial nonsense," while Galaxy Digital warned that the proliferation of over 200 treasury companies reflects speculative excesses seen in investment funds during the 1920s. Metaplanet, which previously traded at eight times its bitcoin holdings, was a model of sector volatility.
Fiscal Year 2026 Forecast: Expected growth of 80%
For fiscal year 2026, Metaplanet expects revenues of ¥16 billion ($104 million), an increase of 79.7% year-on-year, and operating profits of ¥11.4 billion ($74 million), an increase of 81.3%. Of the expected revenues, ¥15.6 billion is anticipated from bitcoin income-generating activities. This suggests that income generation strategies based on bitcoin offerings might be more resilient than pure accumulation plays.
The company did not provide guidance on regular income or net income due to the inherent difficulty in predicting bitcoin prices. Final figures for fiscal year 2025 will be disclosed in the earnings report scheduled for February 16, 2026.
