ETH is around 1883 now—it's still grinding in the same range as yesterday. But today there's a change on the board, and I need to make it clear first.
Yesterday I said spot capital has been steadily flowing in, and the order book buy-side is thick—those were the only reasons supporting this level. Now that support is gone. Over the past three hours, net outflows are nearly 66,000 ETH. In the most recent 12 funding windows, none have flipped positive. On the spot side, money is genuinely being pulled out.
The sentiment, however, is very hot. News like institutional custody and 3x leveraged ETFs has pushed sentiment quite high. KOLs are generally bullish, and large-holder accounts are also net-long, making up 67%.
But the problem is exactly this: with sentiment so hot, the price just won’t rise. Buy volume in the order book is barely 30% of sell orders. Contract active executions also show sell pressure holding the upper hand. Futures are still trading at a discount to spot.
In plain terms, people are saying they're buying a lot, but the real cash is moving out. Shorts aren’t crowded, and sentiment isn’t bad. I don’t think a big drop is likely. However, when good news can’t move the price, the risk-reward of chasing longs is low.
My view is still to wait and see. Once spot capital turns positive, or the price breaks above the 1890 to 1900 resistance zone with volume, then we can talk about entry. Right now, betting on sentiment versus capital isn’t worth it.
#eth $ETH
Yesterday I said spot capital has been steadily flowing in, and the order book buy-side is thick—those were the only reasons supporting this level. Now that support is gone. Over the past three hours, net outflows are nearly 66,000 ETH. In the most recent 12 funding windows, none have flipped positive. On the spot side, money is genuinely being pulled out.
The sentiment, however, is very hot. News like institutional custody and 3x leveraged ETFs has pushed sentiment quite high. KOLs are generally bullish, and large-holder accounts are also net-long, making up 67%.
But the problem is exactly this: with sentiment so hot, the price just won’t rise. Buy volume in the order book is barely 30% of sell orders. Contract active executions also show sell pressure holding the upper hand. Futures are still trading at a discount to spot.
In plain terms, people are saying they're buying a lot, but the real cash is moving out. Shorts aren’t crowded, and sentiment isn’t bad. I don’t think a big drop is likely. However, when good news can’t move the price, the risk-reward of chasing longs is low.
My view is still to wait and see. Once spot capital turns positive, or the price breaks above the 1890 to 1900 resistance zone with volume, then we can talk about entry. Right now, betting on sentiment versus capital isn’t worth it.
#eth $ETH
