Encryption | Predict Tomorrow | August 16
Last night I watched the struggling screen of $BTC 63000 for half an hour again. To be honest—this kind of narrow-range slow slip is the most torturous, even more uncomfortable than a crash. In a crash you dare to buy the dip; in a slow slip you can’t even find the right spot to place limit orders. Tonight I’ll lay out clearly the thinking for tomorrow.
[Market Situation]
$BTC is currently at 63085, nearly flat over the past 24 hours, with an amplitude of only about 200 bucks. This ultra-tight range means both bulls and bears are waiting for a triggering event. My view: 63000 isn’t a bottom—it’s halftime. The real direction choice is most likely to come in the next day or two.
$ETH 1882, $SOL 75.4—both are grinding against the floor. The volume for $SOL is slightly better than $ETH ’s; at least it’s still moving back and forth above 75.
[BTC Key Levels]
- Resistance: 63500 (4H Bollinger upper band), 64500 (weekly-level MA20)
- Support: 62500 (daily MA7), 61800 (dense成交 area)
If it breaks below 62500, I’ll take the bearish case seriously. If it breaks below 61800, then it’s a breakdown and we’ll be heading down in a confirmed way. A break above 63500 can justify a small long position targeting 64500.
[Focus for Tomorrow]
1. $SOL — On the 7-day momentum leaderboard, the few small coins that jump by +500%, +100% and the like are basically “low-quality meme coin” frenzy. Here, $SOL is still grinding for a base, but the tickets on the slow-riser list that crawl upward tend to live longer than the ones that get pumped. I’ll keep a close eye on whether $SOL ’s own chart can be lifted by these second-tier coins.
2. $ETH — At 1880, if it doesn’t break, it doesn’t mean anything; you have to wait for a high-volume K-line to provide direction.
3. Hidden trading-volume anomaly leaderboard: a few small caps with volume ratios of 30x and 20x. This kind of volume ratio suggests someone is quietly accumulating at low levels. If there’s a properly timed pullback tomorrow, you can look into them.
[News]
The SUI ETF is listed, but the price isn’t following down—meaning buy pressure hasn’t really come in, so it’s more like good news that has already been priced in. The TON wallet cross-chain upgrade has limited impact. Recently there haven’t been major unlock events or economic data—this is purely a technical back-and-forth.
[Tomorrow’s Plan]
My stance: slightly wait-and-see; for the aggressive, operate within a range with small positions. Reason—volatility is so low that if you chase in, you’re likely to get slapped back and forth. If you really want to do something:
- Place longs near 62500 (small size), stop loss 61800
- Go long on a breakout above 63500, stop loss 63000
- Shorts aren’t urgent; wait until a break below 62500 before considering
My own plan for tomorrow: mainly set pending orders with a light position, and I won’t proactively chase. If $SOL can hold steady above 76, I’ll shift my attention to it; if it can’t hold, I’ll keep watching.
One last thing: if my prediction is right, I’m not “awesome”—the only normal thing is when I’m wrong. If this setup gets slapped today, I’ll do a recap next week. Do you think 63000 is a real bottom or a fake bottom? Vote in the comments:
A: Real bottom—rebound starts tomorrow
B: Fake bottom—still needs to go to 60k
C: Keep grinding—wait for the Fed
Last night I watched the struggling screen of $BTC 63000 for half an hour again. To be honest—this kind of narrow-range slow slip is the most torturous, even more uncomfortable than a crash. In a crash you dare to buy the dip; in a slow slip you can’t even find the right spot to place limit orders. Tonight I’ll lay out clearly the thinking for tomorrow.
[Market Situation]
$BTC is currently at 63085, nearly flat over the past 24 hours, with an amplitude of only about 200 bucks. This ultra-tight range means both bulls and bears are waiting for a triggering event. My view: 63000 isn’t a bottom—it’s halftime. The real direction choice is most likely to come in the next day or two.
$ETH 1882, $SOL 75.4—both are grinding against the floor. The volume for $SOL is slightly better than $ETH ’s; at least it’s still moving back and forth above 75.
[BTC Key Levels]
- Resistance: 63500 (4H Bollinger upper band), 64500 (weekly-level MA20)
- Support: 62500 (daily MA7), 61800 (dense成交 area)
If it breaks below 62500, I’ll take the bearish case seriously. If it breaks below 61800, then it’s a breakdown and we’ll be heading down in a confirmed way. A break above 63500 can justify a small long position targeting 64500.
[Focus for Tomorrow]
1. $SOL — On the 7-day momentum leaderboard, the few small coins that jump by +500%, +100% and the like are basically “low-quality meme coin” frenzy. Here, $SOL is still grinding for a base, but the tickets on the slow-riser list that crawl upward tend to live longer than the ones that get pumped. I’ll keep a close eye on whether $SOL ’s own chart can be lifted by these second-tier coins.
2. $ETH — At 1880, if it doesn’t break, it doesn’t mean anything; you have to wait for a high-volume K-line to provide direction.
3. Hidden trading-volume anomaly leaderboard: a few small caps with volume ratios of 30x and 20x. This kind of volume ratio suggests someone is quietly accumulating at low levels. If there’s a properly timed pullback tomorrow, you can look into them.
[News]
The SUI ETF is listed, but the price isn’t following down—meaning buy pressure hasn’t really come in, so it’s more like good news that has already been priced in. The TON wallet cross-chain upgrade has limited impact. Recently there haven’t been major unlock events or economic data—this is purely a technical back-and-forth.
[Tomorrow’s Plan]
My stance: slightly wait-and-see; for the aggressive, operate within a range with small positions. Reason—volatility is so low that if you chase in, you’re likely to get slapped back and forth. If you really want to do something:
- Place longs near 62500 (small size), stop loss 61800
- Go long on a breakout above 63500, stop loss 63000
- Shorts aren’t urgent; wait until a break below 62500 before considering
My own plan for tomorrow: mainly set pending orders with a light position, and I won’t proactively chase. If $SOL can hold steady above 76, I’ll shift my attention to it; if it can’t hold, I’ll keep watching.
One last thing: if my prediction is right, I’m not “awesome”—the only normal thing is when I’m wrong. If this setup gets slapped today, I’ll do a recap next week. Do you think 63000 is a real bottom or a fake bottom? Vote in the comments:
A: Real bottom—rebound starts tomorrow
B: Fake bottom—still needs to go to 60k
C: Keep grinding—wait for the Fed