On August 14, SpaceX (SPCX.US) shares closed at $140, valuing the company at about $1.85 trillion. The price rebounded about 35% from the intraday low of $104.83 on August 5 and returned above the IPO issue price of $135.
However, $140 is still down about 18% from the $170.86 level at the end of June, and it has retreated nearly 38% from the record high of $225 set on the third day after listing.
📈 From “the biggest IPO in history” to a roller coaster
SpaceX listed on Nasdaq on June 12 at $135 per share, raising $75 billion and breaking Saudi Aramco’s 2019 record of $29.4 billion—becoming the largest IPO in human history.
On the first day of trading, it opened at $150 and surged to $225 by the third day. Then, as doubts about profitability and expectations for employee stock unlocks piled up, the stock price kept falling, hitting a new post-IPO low in early August at $104.
📊 Key catalyst: NVIDIA’s holdings first disclosed
On August 14, a regulatory filing submitted by NVIDIA to the SEC showed that, as of the end of Q2, the company held about 122.8 million Class A shares of SpaceX, worth roughly $21 billion—making it SpaceX’s sixth-largest investor. This is NVIDIA’s first public disclosure of this position.
NVIDIA’s stake was not acquired via a direct buy; it stemmed from its $10 billion investment in Musk’s AI company, xAI, earlier this January. In February, SpaceX acquired xAI in a stock-swap deal. After the merger, the entity’s valuation was $1.25 trillion, and NVIDIA’s xAI equity was converted into a stake in SpaceX.
Due to recent pullbacks in the share price, the value of NVIDIA’s holding has shrunk to about $17.2 billion. SpaceX’s largest shareholder is Musk himself; based on the Q2 end share price, the book value of his stake is about $85 billion.
🔍 Big split on Wall Street: $140 vs $450
· Piper Sandler: On August 5, lowered the target price from $156 to $140; rating: “Neutral”
· Morgan Stanley: Maintains a $300 baseline target price; in the optimistic scenario, up to $600—an upside potential of 350% versus the current price
· Arete: sets a $450 target price this week
· Evercore: First coverage in July; rating “Outperform”; target price $230
Morgan Stanley believes the market is “extremely conservative” in its valuation of SpaceX’s AI business. If the space and connectivity businesses are valued separately at about $127 per share, the implied market pricing for the AI business drops to only about $12 per share.
📊 Q2 performance: AI has become the biggest growth engine
· Space business: revenue of $962 million, up 29% year-on-year
· Connectivity business (Starlink): revenue of $4.291 billion, up 66% year-on-year
· AI business: revenue of $2.561 billion, up 247% year-on-year; accounting for one-third of total quarterly revenue
· Operating loss narrowed to $143 million, compared with $970 million in the same period last year
· Adjusted EBITDA: $3.5 billion, versus $1.2 billion in the same period last year
Musk told the all-hands meeting that next month, AI revenue will exceed the total of all other businesses.
⚠️ Controversies and risks
David Einhorn, a hedge fund manager who successfully shorted Lehman Brothers before the 2008 financial crisis, warned investors in a letter that SpaceX’s sensational IPO “may be remembered by the market in the future as a warning sign of the stock market approaching a speculative top.” He said bluntly: “As for the IPO valuation of $1.75 trillion, we don’t know whether to describe it as a mass-scaled parody of ‘meme-ification’ in the market, or as yet another humiliation of value investing.”
In addition, on August 11, the first batch of employee stock unlocks took place, and analysts expect a large-scale sell-off.
🔗 Potential linkage to the crypto market:
· AI narrative linkage: SpaceX’s AI business growth (up 247% year-on-year in Q2) further confirms the long-term logic of AI infrastructure. If the market continues to show confidence in AI leaders, risk assets such as BTC and ETH may indirectly benefit from the sustained overall risk appetite.
· “Musk effect”: Musk himself is closely linked to the crypto market (Dogecoin, Bitcoin payments, etc.). The price performance of SpaceX—his core asset—may indirectly influence overall market sentiment toward the “Musk theme.”
· Capital diversion: SpaceX’s market cap is about $1.85 trillion, and since going public it has attracted large amounts of speculative capital. If the stock price keeps recovering, it could create some pressure diverting liquidity away from the crypto market.
· Limited short-term impact: As an independent stock, SpaceX’s direct transmission to the crypto market is limited; it is more of an indirect linkage driven by broader risk appetite.
💡 What do you think?
$140—exactly Piper Sandler’s target price, and also the price Morgan Stanley views as “AI business effectively given away.” SpaceX is at a delicate crossroads: bears see a $1.85 trillion market cap, massive losses, and selling pressure from unlocks; bulls see 247% growth in AI revenue, 66% growth in Starlink, and a narrative of SpaceX transforming from a “rocket-making company” into a three-in-one tech giant of “AI + communications + space.”
This long-running game between bulls and bears is far from over.
Investing involves risk; decisions should be made cautiously. This article is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice.
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