ALLO is hovering around 0.269u now. It looks pretty lively today—up by more than 4%. It bounced up sharply from yesterday’s low of 0.2535.
But for this rebound, I can’t put too much faith in it. The most glaring part is the capital flows: as the price moves higher, spot money keeps pulling out. In the last 3 hours there’s been a net outflow of over $7 million, and within the last 12 candlesticks there hasn’t been a single net inflow candle. Large orders are also net selling. Put simply, it’s sentiment driving the price higher, but there’s no real buying following through.
The derivatives side isn’t strong either. The funding rate is still stuck in negative territory, the futures price is trading at a discount to spot, and open interest hasn’t shown any noticeable growth. Leveraged capital hasn’t really joined this rebound—more like existing funds are just rotating around inside.
On the technical side, the moving averages are still in a bearish configuration. The MACD has a dead cross hanging there. Although volume has picked up, the OBV is trending downward—more like distribution than accumulation.
That said, it’s not all without bright spots. On the big-money accounts, the long-to-short positioning ratio has been pushed above 1.4, and the number of accounts is still increasing—more bullish than retail traders by a clear margin. On social media, the discussion around Upbit listing is still building up, so in the short term it probably won’t just immediately collapse. Also, the RSI and MFI have both reached oversold zones—after a deep drop, a rebound is normal.
So at this level, my stance is: don’t chase, and don’t rush to short either. Chasing longs here would be providing liquidity at the rebound’s top, and shorting now would mean going against the big players. I’ll wait until this wave of sentiment cools off, the price pulls back toward the lows and gets support from buyers, and spot capital starts flowing back again—then we can reassess. For now, I’m tightening risk and waiting for the capital flows to give the answer.
#allo $ALLO
But for this rebound, I can’t put too much faith in it. The most glaring part is the capital flows: as the price moves higher, spot money keeps pulling out. In the last 3 hours there’s been a net outflow of over $7 million, and within the last 12 candlesticks there hasn’t been a single net inflow candle. Large orders are also net selling. Put simply, it’s sentiment driving the price higher, but there’s no real buying following through.
The derivatives side isn’t strong either. The funding rate is still stuck in negative territory, the futures price is trading at a discount to spot, and open interest hasn’t shown any noticeable growth. Leveraged capital hasn’t really joined this rebound—more like existing funds are just rotating around inside.
On the technical side, the moving averages are still in a bearish configuration. The MACD has a dead cross hanging there. Although volume has picked up, the OBV is trending downward—more like distribution than accumulation.
That said, it’s not all without bright spots. On the big-money accounts, the long-to-short positioning ratio has been pushed above 1.4, and the number of accounts is still increasing—more bullish than retail traders by a clear margin. On social media, the discussion around Upbit listing is still building up, so in the short term it probably won’t just immediately collapse. Also, the RSI and MFI have both reached oversold zones—after a deep drop, a rebound is normal.
So at this level, my stance is: don’t chase, and don’t rush to short either. Chasing longs here would be providing liquidity at the rebound’s top, and shorting now would mean going against the big players. I’ll wait until this wave of sentiment cools off, the price pulls back toward the lows and gets support from buyers, and spot capital starts flowing back again—then we can reassess. For now, I’m tightening risk and waiting for the capital flows to give the answer.
#allo $ALLO