Next week’s market feels like it’s about to start choosing a direction again 👀
Last week, Risk-on clearly returned. The US stock market kept strengthening, with AI, tech, and semiconductors taking the baton again.
But next week, I’m mainly watching three things:
1️⃣ Strait of Hormuz
Negotiations on shipping between Iran and Oman have already made some progress, but “agreeing on a route” ≠ “fully restoring navigation.”
What really matters is whether ships start coming back.
Better shipping → lower oil geo-premium → easing inflation pressure → Risk-on
And if talks fall apart again:
Oil / XAU could be in play once more, and BTC and US stocks may keep benefiting from geopolitical developments.
2️⃣ FOMC Minutes
Last time, there were already 3 votes in support of a rate hike.
This time, what’s most worth watching in the minutes isn’t simply “whether there will be a hike,” but:
How many people are still hawkish?
Recently, inflation data has cooled somewhat, and market expectations for a rate hike in September have also dropped.
3️⃣ PMI
On Friday, I’ll be watching the US manufacturing and services PMI.
If the data is weak → expectations that the Fed will stay put in September become more stable.
If the data is too strong → rate-hike trade could return.
So next week, my script is pretty simple:
Oil: watch the Strait of Hormuz
Gold: watch the Fed
US stocks: watch AI + interest rates
BTC: watch all three 😂
Lately, Risk-on has returned,
but this week might be the real key to whether the trend can keep running.
Last week, Risk-on clearly returned. The US stock market kept strengthening, with AI, tech, and semiconductors taking the baton again.
But next week, I’m mainly watching three things:
1️⃣ Strait of Hormuz
Negotiations on shipping between Iran and Oman have already made some progress, but “agreeing on a route” ≠ “fully restoring navigation.”
What really matters is whether ships start coming back.
Better shipping → lower oil geo-premium → easing inflation pressure → Risk-on
And if talks fall apart again:
Oil / XAU could be in play once more, and BTC and US stocks may keep benefiting from geopolitical developments.
2️⃣ FOMC Minutes
Last time, there were already 3 votes in support of a rate hike.
This time, what’s most worth watching in the minutes isn’t simply “whether there will be a hike,” but:
How many people are still hawkish?
Recently, inflation data has cooled somewhat, and market expectations for a rate hike in September have also dropped.
3️⃣ PMI
On Friday, I’ll be watching the US manufacturing and services PMI.
If the data is weak → expectations that the Fed will stay put in September become more stable.
If the data is too strong → rate-hike trade could return.
So next week, my script is pretty simple:
Oil: watch the Strait of Hormuz
Gold: watch the Fed
US stocks: watch AI + interest rates
BTC: watch all three 😂
Lately, Risk-on has returned,
but this week might be the real key to whether the trend can keep running.