ACE is currently around 0.147u. It just bounced back from the low at 0.13—within one hour it surged 10%.
First the conclusion: don’t chase longs here, and don’t rush to short either. The main stance is to wait and observe.
The bullish case mainly comes from the futures side. In two days, it was smashed from 0.38 down to 0.13, and open interest on the contracts has shrunk by nearly half. Longs have basically been shaken out for a full round—so you can say there was a wave of capitulation at the positioning level. The funding rate is now down around -1.2%: shorts are paying to hold positions, and in the short term there is indeed fuel for a squeeze. A net pull of 10% in six 1-hour candles is exactly how that happens.
But the issue is that the rebound doesn’t have spot liquidity to carry it forward. Over the last three hours, spot has net outflows of over 22 million. In the past 12 candles, none have turned positive. Even large orders have only just barely returned to positive. In plain terms, this move is short-covering on the futures side—not spot capital entering. Both the 4-hour and daily directions are still pressing downward.
In essence, it’s a deep oversold rebound after an overhyped surge. It rallied from 0.06 to 0.38, then got dumped back to 0.13. This kind of small-cap that can turn five or six times in a month—its volatility is itself the risk.
So the attitude is very clear: chasing longs isn’t cost-effective—this rebound has already gone part of the way, and spot is still being sold. Chasing shorts also doesn’t feel comfortable—negative funding plus crowded shorts makes it easy to get crushed by another rebound. Wait: either let the rebound reach the dense zone around 0.16–0.17 on the upside and see if funds turn back, or wait until spot outflows turn positive, then discuss direction.
#ace $ACE
First the conclusion: don’t chase longs here, and don’t rush to short either. The main stance is to wait and observe.
The bullish case mainly comes from the futures side. In two days, it was smashed from 0.38 down to 0.13, and open interest on the contracts has shrunk by nearly half. Longs have basically been shaken out for a full round—so you can say there was a wave of capitulation at the positioning level. The funding rate is now down around -1.2%: shorts are paying to hold positions, and in the short term there is indeed fuel for a squeeze. A net pull of 10% in six 1-hour candles is exactly how that happens.
But the issue is that the rebound doesn’t have spot liquidity to carry it forward. Over the last three hours, spot has net outflows of over 22 million. In the past 12 candles, none have turned positive. Even large orders have only just barely returned to positive. In plain terms, this move is short-covering on the futures side—not spot capital entering. Both the 4-hour and daily directions are still pressing downward.
In essence, it’s a deep oversold rebound after an overhyped surge. It rallied from 0.06 to 0.38, then got dumped back to 0.13. This kind of small-cap that can turn five or six times in a month—its volatility is itself the risk.
So the attitude is very clear: chasing longs isn’t cost-effective—this rebound has already gone part of the way, and spot is still being sold. Chasing shorts also doesn’t feel comfortable—negative funding plus crowded shorts makes it easy to get crushed by another rebound. Wait: either let the rebound reach the dense zone around 0.16–0.17 on the upside and see if funds turn back, or wait until spot outflows turn positive, then discuss direction.
#ace $ACE