AI isn’t a single big bubble—it’s a series of rolling bubbles: why the big crash is harder, yet the returns feel even more elusive?
Strategy analyst Joshi: AI isn’t a one-time bubble burst; it’s bubbles blown one after another—most of the money is likely to be burned.
Dhaval Joshi is a well-known strategist at BCA Research. This time, his view differs from the market’s “AI = Internet bubble 2.0” narrative. He believes AI won’t explode all at once like in 2000; instead, it will be a “rolling bubble.” First you hype chips, then data centers, then the application layer—when one theme deflates, the next one keeps propping up, while hot money rolls forward and pushes prices. The upside is there won’t be a one-day-style massive clearance crash. The downside is that each bubble cycle consumes real cash; once the tide goes out, you find out: you spent a lot, and long-term returns are a mystery.
One-line translation: AI won’t blow you up in one shot, but a dull-blade cut could be more brutal—capital is being mismatched cycle after cycle.
Impact on the market
- Short term: This statement itself is a bucket of cold water thrown on tech-sector sentiment. In crypto, the correlation with AI and tech stocks is extremely high right now. When the AI narrative cools off, small-cap alts have no story to tell, and BTC and ETH will also be dragged along by Nasdaq sentiment. BTC is stuck around $75.47,072.43, and ETH at $1,880.94—both in a lukewarm, neither-hot-nor-cold state. There’s no independent upside momentum; with just a gust of wind from outside, the market turns sideways and then drifts lower.
- Medium term: “Rolling bubbles” mean capital efficiency keeps deteriorating. Institutional money keeps burning in AI, and liquidity for the entire risk-asset complex gets misallocated and locked up. For crypto’s long-term incremental capital expectations, this is a negative—more like chronic blood loss than an acute bearish catalyst.
My take
To be honest, I’m on Joshi’s side—this bearish angle is far more grounded than the people who scream “collapse” every day. Cautious in the short run: BTC at $75.47,072 is a weak equilibrium. If the $75.47K integer level breaks and is lost, there won’t be very thick support underneath. ETH at $1,880 is even more fragile—funds haven’t truly flowed back. Cooling off in the AI sector is like adding fuel to the fire. The feature of rolling bubbles is that local rebounds can happen, but with each cycle the rebound’s strength and duration diminish. Don’t confuse a technical bounce with a trend reversal. Risks also need to be spelled out: the other side of rolling bubbles is that the narrative can be restarted again and again. In AI, another mega round of financing could reignite the story anytime—sentiment gets ignited at any moment. Chasing shorts is just as dangerous.
- Coin(s): BTC / ETH
- Direction: Bearish 📉 Predicting a drop
- Duration: BTC 12 hours / ETH 24 hours
❓ Share this with friends still heavily positioned in AI-concept coins—being cut by a dull blade is easier to numb people than a one-time bubble burst.
$BTC $ETH #BTC #ETH
📊 Historical backtest
- After similar posts like “Strategist warns Bitcoin could crash to $50,000 on this date” (2025-11-11), BTC’s 12h move was -1.20%. The call was bearish ✅ and correct
- There are 136 historical BTC-bearish news items; in 64 of them, the predicted direction matched the actual price action (accuracy 47%)
#Macroeconomy
⚠️ Not investment advice
Strategy analyst Joshi: AI isn’t a one-time bubble burst; it’s bubbles blown one after another—most of the money is likely to be burned.
Dhaval Joshi is a well-known strategist at BCA Research. This time, his view differs from the market’s “AI = Internet bubble 2.0” narrative. He believes AI won’t explode all at once like in 2000; instead, it will be a “rolling bubble.” First you hype chips, then data centers, then the application layer—when one theme deflates, the next one keeps propping up, while hot money rolls forward and pushes prices. The upside is there won’t be a one-day-style massive clearance crash. The downside is that each bubble cycle consumes real cash; once the tide goes out, you find out: you spent a lot, and long-term returns are a mystery.
One-line translation: AI won’t blow you up in one shot, but a dull-blade cut could be more brutal—capital is being mismatched cycle after cycle.
Impact on the market
- Short term: This statement itself is a bucket of cold water thrown on tech-sector sentiment. In crypto, the correlation with AI and tech stocks is extremely high right now. When the AI narrative cools off, small-cap alts have no story to tell, and BTC and ETH will also be dragged along by Nasdaq sentiment. BTC is stuck around $75.47,072.43, and ETH at $1,880.94—both in a lukewarm, neither-hot-nor-cold state. There’s no independent upside momentum; with just a gust of wind from outside, the market turns sideways and then drifts lower.
- Medium term: “Rolling bubbles” mean capital efficiency keeps deteriorating. Institutional money keeps burning in AI, and liquidity for the entire risk-asset complex gets misallocated and locked up. For crypto’s long-term incremental capital expectations, this is a negative—more like chronic blood loss than an acute bearish catalyst.
My take
To be honest, I’m on Joshi’s side—this bearish angle is far more grounded than the people who scream “collapse” every day. Cautious in the short run: BTC at $75.47,072 is a weak equilibrium. If the $75.47K integer level breaks and is lost, there won’t be very thick support underneath. ETH at $1,880 is even more fragile—funds haven’t truly flowed back. Cooling off in the AI sector is like adding fuel to the fire. The feature of rolling bubbles is that local rebounds can happen, but with each cycle the rebound’s strength and duration diminish. Don’t confuse a technical bounce with a trend reversal. Risks also need to be spelled out: the other side of rolling bubbles is that the narrative can be restarted again and again. In AI, another mega round of financing could reignite the story anytime—sentiment gets ignited at any moment. Chasing shorts is just as dangerous.
- Coin(s): BTC / ETH
- Direction: Bearish 📉 Predicting a drop
- Duration: BTC 12 hours / ETH 24 hours
❓ Share this with friends still heavily positioned in AI-concept coins—being cut by a dull blade is easier to numb people than a one-time bubble burst.
$BTC $ETH #BTC #ETH
📊 Historical backtest
- After similar posts like “Strategist warns Bitcoin could crash to $50,000 on this date” (2025-11-11), BTC’s 12h move was -1.20%. The call was bearish ✅ and correct
- There are 136 historical BTC-bearish news items; in 64 of them, the predicted direction matched the actual price action (accuracy 47%)
#Macroeconomy
⚠️ Not investment advice