COW is now around 0.123u. It rose from 0.1 over three days, peaking intraday at 0.19 and even landing on the gainers’ board. It surged about 20% in a single day. But when you算 out the whole trade, this isn’t the place to chase.
First, let’s look at price. From the high, it has already pulled back by one third. The 15-minute chart broke below the MA20/MA50, and the 4-hour chart has turned bearish as well. The momentum from that breakout phase has clearly died—this is obvious.
What truly makes me cautious is the money. In the spot market, over the past three hours there have been 12 candlesticks with not a single one showing a net inflow. Cumulatively, there has been net outflow of over 4 million. Even in the large-order order book, there’s been an outflow of over 6 million. In other words, this rally wasn’t driven by persistent buying—it relied on sentiment and leverage.
The contract open interest has increased by 6x in a day. For a market with a value of over 70 million, when leverage is stacked to this extent, once the price turns, volatility will be exponentially amplified. The funding rate has also dropped deeply to a negative -1.2%. The market’s direction has already changed.
People on the square are still asking, “Can it return to 0.2?” But the capital has already voted with its feet. Chasing long at this position is basically handing the baton to the previous rally, while we currently don’t see that follow-through capital. My stance: don’t chase—wait and observe. Let the open interest come down, let spot liquidity flow back, or wait for a pullback that can hold its ground; then we can look again.
#cow $COW
First, let’s look at price. From the high, it has already pulled back by one third. The 15-minute chart broke below the MA20/MA50, and the 4-hour chart has turned bearish as well. The momentum from that breakout phase has clearly died—this is obvious.
What truly makes me cautious is the money. In the spot market, over the past three hours there have been 12 candlesticks with not a single one showing a net inflow. Cumulatively, there has been net outflow of over 4 million. Even in the large-order order book, there’s been an outflow of over 6 million. In other words, this rally wasn’t driven by persistent buying—it relied on sentiment and leverage.
The contract open interest has increased by 6x in a day. For a market with a value of over 70 million, when leverage is stacked to this extent, once the price turns, volatility will be exponentially amplified. The funding rate has also dropped deeply to a negative -1.2%. The market’s direction has already changed.
People on the square are still asking, “Can it return to 0.2?” But the capital has already voted with its feet. Chasing long at this position is basically handing the baton to the previous rally, while we currently don’t see that follow-through capital. My stance: don’t chase—wait and observe. Let the open interest come down, let spot liquidity flow back, or wait for a pullback that can hold its ground; then we can look again.
#cow $COW