$CAP is now around 0.068. I’m not in a hurry to chase here.
First, take a look at the trend: over the past week it climbed from 0.0366 to 0.0789—more than doubled. Two days ago it just touched a historical high before getting pushed back; the low was dumped to 0.0509, and now it has bounced back to 0.068. The short-term momentum is still there—on the four-hour timeframe it’s pointing upward, and this rebound is also quite decisive.
But the real question is: where is the money coming from? In this rebound, the futures contract open interest rose more than 13% over 7 hours, and the funding rate has been negative continuously—meaning shorts are paying while longs are propping things up with leverage. Meanwhile, net inflow of spot large orders throughout the entire move is 0—no spot money has come in at all. In plain terms, this is a rebound pulled up by leveraged futures, not something bought with real spot funds.
There’s another signal to pay attention to: over the last 7 hours, the proportion of long positions in big-holder accounts dropped by 13%, and positions are also being reduced. While the price is bouncing up, the whales are actually withdrawing—this divergence makes me feel a bit uneasy.
So my view is: the direction hasn’t broken down, but chasing longs at this level isn’t great in terms of cost-effectiveness. The area around 0.078 is the trapped zone. If the rebound really wants to break out, we need to see spot funding follow through and whales start to cover again. For now, it’s more suitable to wait for another pullback to confirm, or wait until it can stand above the previous high with volume.
#cap $CAP
First, take a look at the trend: over the past week it climbed from 0.0366 to 0.0789—more than doubled. Two days ago it just touched a historical high before getting pushed back; the low was dumped to 0.0509, and now it has bounced back to 0.068. The short-term momentum is still there—on the four-hour timeframe it’s pointing upward, and this rebound is also quite decisive.
But the real question is: where is the money coming from? In this rebound, the futures contract open interest rose more than 13% over 7 hours, and the funding rate has been negative continuously—meaning shorts are paying while longs are propping things up with leverage. Meanwhile, net inflow of spot large orders throughout the entire move is 0—no spot money has come in at all. In plain terms, this is a rebound pulled up by leveraged futures, not something bought with real spot funds.
There’s another signal to pay attention to: over the last 7 hours, the proportion of long positions in big-holder accounts dropped by 13%, and positions are also being reduced. While the price is bouncing up, the whales are actually withdrawing—this divergence makes me feel a bit uneasy.
So my view is: the direction hasn’t broken down, but chasing longs at this level isn’t great in terms of cost-effectiveness. The area around 0.078 is the trapped zone. If the rebound really wants to break out, we need to see spot funding follow through and whales start to cover again. For now, it’s more suitable to wait for another pullback to confirm, or wait until it can stand above the previous high with volume.
#cap $CAP