VELVET is currently around 0.88u. First, the conclusion: I won’t chase this bounce—I'll wait for the pressure to release.
This coin was still “in the sky” a few days ago—over 7 days it went from 0.42 to 1.24, almost tripling, then in one day it crashed back to 0.79. Now it’s bouncing back to 0.88. After a parabolic top, the subsequent rallies are mostly a continuation of a downtrend, not a reversal.
Where is the problem? Open interest has dropped by 5.5% at a high level; price is going down and open interest is also going down—this is a classic long liquidation quadrant, and the verdict is only two words: exhaustion. In the 4-hour chart, there are 6 candles: four bearish and two bullish, a net drop of 24%. On the daily chart, a single big bearish candle is still pressing down. Fees are still sitting in positive territory (0.025%). Longs are paying money to hold their positions; meanwhile on the spot side, for nearly the last 5 candles, the net inflow from large orders is 0, and the order book sell pressure is also thicker than buy pressure.
The big players look interesting too: in the whale accounts, the share still holding longs is only 43%, and they’ve been reducing for 7 hours. Their positioning is still somewhat long (59%), meaning they’re one of the few large holders hard-carrying—this kind of concentrated positioning, once it loosens during a bounce, volatility can amplify.
There’s also a hidden card: circulating supply is only 47.7%. Half of the coins/lot isn’t out yet, and the price is still about 40% away from the historical high. For small-cap coins, supply pressure is hanging over the head at this stage.
So I don’t recommend chasing. The short-term bounce looks strong, but the buying isn’t healthy and sell pressure hasn’t released. If you want to participate, wait for it to retest that 0.79 low clearly, or wait until the rebound shows obvious exhaustion before discussing direction. If you rush in now, it’s uncomfortable both ways.
#velvet $VELVET
This coin was still “in the sky” a few days ago—over 7 days it went from 0.42 to 1.24, almost tripling, then in one day it crashed back to 0.79. Now it’s bouncing back to 0.88. After a parabolic top, the subsequent rallies are mostly a continuation of a downtrend, not a reversal.
Where is the problem? Open interest has dropped by 5.5% at a high level; price is going down and open interest is also going down—this is a classic long liquidation quadrant, and the verdict is only two words: exhaustion. In the 4-hour chart, there are 6 candles: four bearish and two bullish, a net drop of 24%. On the daily chart, a single big bearish candle is still pressing down. Fees are still sitting in positive territory (0.025%). Longs are paying money to hold their positions; meanwhile on the spot side, for nearly the last 5 candles, the net inflow from large orders is 0, and the order book sell pressure is also thicker than buy pressure.
The big players look interesting too: in the whale accounts, the share still holding longs is only 43%, and they’ve been reducing for 7 hours. Their positioning is still somewhat long (59%), meaning they’re one of the few large holders hard-carrying—this kind of concentrated positioning, once it loosens during a bounce, volatility can amplify.
There’s also a hidden card: circulating supply is only 47.7%. Half of the coins/lot isn’t out yet, and the price is still about 40% away from the historical high. For small-cap coins, supply pressure is hanging over the head at this stage.
So I don’t recommend chasing. The short-term bounce looks strong, but the buying isn’t healthy and sell pressure hasn’t released. If you want to participate, wait for it to retest that 0.79 low clearly, or wait until the rebound shows obvious exhaustion before discussing direction. If you rush in now, it’s uncomfortable both ways.
#velvet $VELVET