ZEC is currently around 487. This level is not particularly strong, nor particularly weak—don’t rush to pick a side yet.
The most recent move has been a slow, grinding decline. Over the past week it dropped about 4%, moving from 531 down to 485. But when it hit this area, there wasn’t much selling volume. The four-hour chart marked a sign of momentum exhaustion, and the order book has had people stepping in to buy. However, that buying hasn’t been very decisive. The spot market’s net inflow over the last three hours is still positive, and all 12 candlesticks are red. Yet lately, large orders have been exiting; the low-level dip buyers are mostly medium and small-sized orders.
The issue is leverage. Over the past 12 hours, the leverage borrowing ratio has surged by nearly 3x. The spot leverage long-to-short ratio is already skewed to about 40:1—clearly, the longs are adding leverage to hold their positions. The futures side is even more complicated: proactive selling outweighs buying; the buy order volume has shrunk by about 30% over the past seven hours, yet open interest is still rising. In other words, price hasn’t moved much while positions are being added. This combination is most afraid that when direction finally breaks, it will first cut you with a move.
Technically, it’s also not the right time to chase. MACD is still in the strong bearish zone. After the price breaks below the Bollinger middle band, the first support is the 485 prior low; below that is 476. But ADX is only around 10, and volume is less than half the average. Simply put: this looks like grinding, not a trend. If you force yourself to chase shorts, the odds aren’t great either.
So my stance is very clear: I won’t chase longs, and I’m not in a rush to short. Just watch whether 485 can hold. If it holds and spot capital continues to flow in, then there will be a basis to discuss a rebound. If it fails to hold, then the leverage-loaded long risk is the real danger that needs to be released. Wait for direction—and wait for confirmation.
#zec $ZEC
The most recent move has been a slow, grinding decline. Over the past week it dropped about 4%, moving from 531 down to 485. But when it hit this area, there wasn’t much selling volume. The four-hour chart marked a sign of momentum exhaustion, and the order book has had people stepping in to buy. However, that buying hasn’t been very decisive. The spot market’s net inflow over the last three hours is still positive, and all 12 candlesticks are red. Yet lately, large orders have been exiting; the low-level dip buyers are mostly medium and small-sized orders.
The issue is leverage. Over the past 12 hours, the leverage borrowing ratio has surged by nearly 3x. The spot leverage long-to-short ratio is already skewed to about 40:1—clearly, the longs are adding leverage to hold their positions. The futures side is even more complicated: proactive selling outweighs buying; the buy order volume has shrunk by about 30% over the past seven hours, yet open interest is still rising. In other words, price hasn’t moved much while positions are being added. This combination is most afraid that when direction finally breaks, it will first cut you with a move.
Technically, it’s also not the right time to chase. MACD is still in the strong bearish zone. After the price breaks below the Bollinger middle band, the first support is the 485 prior low; below that is 476. But ADX is only around 10, and volume is less than half the average. Simply put: this looks like grinding, not a trend. If you force yourself to chase shorts, the odds aren’t great either.
So my stance is very clear: I won’t chase longs, and I’m not in a rush to short. Just watch whether 485 can hold. If it holds and spot capital continues to flow in, then there will be a basis to discuss a rebound. If it fails to hold, then the leverage-loaded long risk is the real danger that needs to be released. Wait for direction—and wait for confirmation.
#zec $ZEC