Damn, SNDK is now around 1662u. I just pushed through that little platform from 1650–1654, touched 1668, and have been hovering just under the 24-hour high of 1673 for about 24 hours.
First, the conclusion: I recognize the trend, but I’m not chasing at this level. Old story: the stuff that ran from 1220 up to 1660—chasing from mid-slope has terrible value.
Why do I recognize the trend? Price is holding above the 20 and 50 moving averages. And the last 4-hour candle directly ripped from 1653 to 1664—that was the most aggressive candle of this move, and the breakout of the platform is for real.
But the problem is also in this same candle. The contract’s active order book can’t even scrape together buy volume of five percent of the total, while sell orders are pressing down. On the spot order book, the buy side is extremely thin—if there’s a pullback, the hands taking the bag aren’t thick enough. The funding rate hasn’t had a single positive period across 8 intervals; it’s been all negative. Shorts are still paying to keep shorting, which shows the shorts underneath still aren’t accepting the move.
This gets interesting: the shorts aren’t convinced, but price keeps pushing up. Theoretically, this structure can easily trigger a short squeeze—provided the breakout comes with volume and there are big spot orders coming in to take over. But now, net inflow for spot big orders is zero. Even among big holders, longs vs shorts is roughly 50/50 but slightly bearish; nobody is clearly chasing higher prices. Just one bullish candle can’t carry the argument.
So my plan is simple: I won’t chase in the resistance zone of 1668–1673. I’ll either wait for a pullback to the 1650 platform and see if it holds; or wait until the funding rate turns positive and buy pressure returns to above 50% before entering. Don’t fight the trend, don’t get greedy about the position. Hold the spot you already have and watch it play out—chasing is less comfortable.
#sndk $SNDK
First, the conclusion: I recognize the trend, but I’m not chasing at this level. Old story: the stuff that ran from 1220 up to 1660—chasing from mid-slope has terrible value.
Why do I recognize the trend? Price is holding above the 20 and 50 moving averages. And the last 4-hour candle directly ripped from 1653 to 1664—that was the most aggressive candle of this move, and the breakout of the platform is for real.
But the problem is also in this same candle. The contract’s active order book can’t even scrape together buy volume of five percent of the total, while sell orders are pressing down. On the spot order book, the buy side is extremely thin—if there’s a pullback, the hands taking the bag aren’t thick enough. The funding rate hasn’t had a single positive period across 8 intervals; it’s been all negative. Shorts are still paying to keep shorting, which shows the shorts underneath still aren’t accepting the move.
This gets interesting: the shorts aren’t convinced, but price keeps pushing up. Theoretically, this structure can easily trigger a short squeeze—provided the breakout comes with volume and there are big spot orders coming in to take over. But now, net inflow for spot big orders is zero. Even among big holders, longs vs shorts is roughly 50/50 but slightly bearish; nobody is clearly chasing higher prices. Just one bullish candle can’t carry the argument.
So my plan is simple: I won’t chase in the resistance zone of 1668–1673. I’ll either wait for a pullback to the 1650 platform and see if it holds; or wait until the funding rate turns positive and buy pressure returns to above 50% before entering. Don’t fight the trend, don’t get greedy about the position. Hold the spot you already have and watch it play out—chasing is less comfortable.
#sndk $SNDK