$ARB Today it made it to trending, but the order book isn’t sending a “going up” signal—it’s sending a “the position is finally more worth watching than the price” signal. In the past 24 hours it’s down 3.17%, but what really matters isn’t this red candle—it’s the trading volume. On July 18 there was still $65M in volume; now it’s only $24.88M, a 60% drop. The price slid from 0.09 to 0.073 while volume keeps shrinking. This combination has appeared both at the tail end of a down move and also in the middle of a trend. To tell them apart, you rely on the *position*.
From a spot that’s nearly 97% below the ATH of $2.39, the market cap is still $482M, ranking #95. The issue with this position isn’t “whether it can still fall,” because the magnitude of the drop by itself no longer provides information. The real question is: what exactly are the people still in the market waiting for? If they’re waiting for the L2 narrative to get picked up by capital again, then the narrow range between $0.072 and $0.075 is the observation zone. If they’re waiting to catch a rebound and get out, then the peak height of each rebound will keep getting lower.
What I care about most is that over the last 30 days, there hasn’t been a single decent surge in volume. After volume shrinks to the extreme, the direction decision—most likely—will determine the range for the coming month. If $0.072 breaks down, the “position logic” mentioned earlier won’t hold.
Which variable is most likely to overturn this assessment? Is it volume, the narrative, or the $0.072 integer-level itself? I want to hear what you think.
From a spot that’s nearly 97% below the ATH of $2.39, the market cap is still $482M, ranking #95. The issue with this position isn’t “whether it can still fall,” because the magnitude of the drop by itself no longer provides information. The real question is: what exactly are the people still in the market waiting for? If they’re waiting for the L2 narrative to get picked up by capital again, then the narrow range between $0.072 and $0.075 is the observation zone. If they’re waiting to catch a rebound and get out, then the peak height of each rebound will keep getting lower.
What I care about most is that over the last 30 days, there hasn’t been a single decent surge in volume. After volume shrinks to the extreme, the direction decision—most likely—will determine the range for the coming month. If $0.072 breaks down, the “position logic” mentioned earlier won’t hold.
Which variable is most likely to overturn this assessment? Is it volume, the narrative, or the $0.072 integer-level itself? I want to hear what you think.