Cryptocurrency markets often respond less to fundamentals and more to attention. When the narrative peaks, price only follows if volume and positioning confirm it. With the release of the Melania Trump documentary on January 30, traders are watching to see if the hype will translate into sustained demand for Melania and Trump tokens—or if both risk fading once interest has peaked.
So far, the price action for both native Solana tokens shows early positioning, but not complete conviction. Charts, volume data, and on-chain signals indicate that both tokens are at decision points where sentiment alone may not be enough.
Melania's price analysis: A bullish structure is forming, but volume is still lagging.
On the daily chart, Melania's price is forming a cup and handle pattern, a structure that often indicates further upside when confirmed. The rounded base developed during December, followed by a brief consolidation phase that formed the handle. Recently, the price has attempted to break above this handle, suggesting early bullish intent.
However, the hack attempt was weak, given that the price of the Melania Mim token had been trading relatively stably over the past seven days.
The neckline in this structure slopes slightly downwards, making confirmation more difficult. Melania's price attempted to break above the neckline on January 24th but failed. The reason wasn't just price rejection—it was also a lack of price volume.
Want more symbol insights like this? Subscribe to Editor Harsh Notaria's Daily Crypto Newsletter here.
From a purely graphical perspective, the measured transition from the cup predicts a potential rise of 111%. But without volume expansion, this projection remains theoretical.
The size confirms the weakness point
The expanded dollar trading volume clearly highlights the problem. Ethereum EEX activity in Melania has remained largely low for weeks, with a notable spike on January 19, when volume briefly surged before fading again. Outside of that session, participation remains limited.
Therefore, the trading volume patterns in the financial markets or the European market market do not yet correspond to a breakout movement.
The low DEX and CEX volumes are important because MELANIA is an enthusiasm-driven token. These tokens require consistent inflows to maintain trends. Currently, this flow is intermittent.
This explains why the price momentum stalled even as the pattern began to build.
The emotions rose first — then faded
Social sentiment provides a longer context. Positive sentiment toward Melania peaked on January 20, reaching a level close to 4.0, its highest since late October. Historically, these same sentiment spikes have preceded price increases, albeit with a lag.
For example, sentiment peaked near $4.95 in late October, followed by a rise of around $0.20 by mid-November. This pattern suggests that sentiment often drives price—but only if it follows price volume.
This time, emotions have already calmed down. Current readings are closer to 1.85, significantly lower than the January peak.
As the documentary draws closer, the absence of a renewed surge of emotion is a warning sign. Had the noise been driving the narrative, the emotions would likely have already begun to rise.
Whales buy, but not aggressively.
On-chain data adds complexity. Over the past seven days, Melania's whales have increased their holdings by approximately 9.7%, while stock market balances have declined slightly. This suggests early positioning rather than a last-minute panic buying spree.
However, size matters. The buildup is there, but it's not explosive. The whales seem interested, but they aren't forced to flee the room.
Key Melania price levels that determine the trend
For Melania, structure is more important, with these key price levels to watch out for:
Bullish confirmation requires a clean daily close above $0.190, with expanding volume.
Above this level, a rise towards $0.298 becomes structurally valid, following the anticipated breakout.
If the price of the Melania falls below $0.141, the cup's structure and handle weaken.
A drop below $0.098 would completely invalidate the setup and indicate a risk of selling the news.
Currently, Melania's price is in the middle. The structure is alive, but it's not supported by the size.
This leads to the next question. If the symbol of the First Lady needs a lot of buzz, emotion, and scale to match the enthusiasm, is Trump showing similar or stronger signals—or is capital picking sides within the same narrative?
Trump's price analysis: Stronger interest in whales, and a problem of the same size
Trump’s chart tells a different but related story. His official price is trading within a descending wedge, a structure that often moves upward once the upper trendline is broken. Technically, Trump is closer to a confirmed breakout than Melania. However, compared to Melania’s range-bound retracement pricing, Trump’s price is down about 3% compared to last week.
The teacher's transition from the wedge indicates a 56% probability of an upward move if momentum increases.
Whale activity is stronger than melanism
The on-chain data reveals a striking difference between the two symbols. Trump's whales increased their holdings by more than 17% last week, nearly double Melania's accumulation rate.
This suggests that larger players are positioning themselves more confidently in Trump’s trance, likely due to his stronger social dominance and wider narrative reach.
Trump's social media dominance is 0.39% compared to Melania's 0.006%. This is one reason why the whales might be adding more to the former.
DEX activity shows that participation is declining
Despite the accumulation of whales, DEX data reveals a decline in retail activity, similar to what occurred in Melania. Trump's DEX peaked on January 3, with daily trading volume exceeding $157 million. Since then, activity has plummeted to around $7.5 million, a drop of over 95%.
Average trading volume and number of traders have trended downwards, confirming that the recent price stability is not driven by new demand.
This reflects Melania's problem: the structure is there, but the follow-through is not.
Trump's price level is the most important.
For this move to take effect, Trump needs a clean close above $5.15. This level breaks the wedge resistance and reverses the market structure to the upside.
If that is achieved, a follow-on of around $7.38 becomes realistic.
On the downside, the risks are clearly defined:
$4.64 has been a key support level for Trump's price since the October crash.
A decisive loss of $4.63 would weaken the upward structure.
The connection between Melania and Trump
The last part is the connection.
Over the long term, Melania and Trump have shown a positive correlation of 0.88, meaning that price movements in one often influence the other. Furthermore, Trump's social dominance remains significantly higher than Melania's, which explains why whales have stronger interest in Trump.
This relationship is important. If Melania experiences a film-driven explosion linked to the documentary buzz, Trump is likely to benefit statistically. The reverse is also true.
But correlation does not create volume. Momentum is only transferred after it exists.
However, these two currencies are barely correlated with Bitcoin, with Melania even showing a long-term negative correlation. Therefore, if Bitcoin corrects this, Melania could at least receive a positive boost.
Both symbols are structurally sound. Melania has an upward trend, but participation is weak. Trump enjoys stronger support from whales, but retail activity is declining, thanks to lower DEX trading.
For either of these spikes to occur, the volume must reach its peak before or during the documentary's release, not after. Otherwise, both risk short-lived spikes followed by burnout.
