As of January 26, 2026, the crypto market is in a state of 'anxious anticipation'. After a local correction of Bitcoin to levels $87000 – $88000, traders and large institutions have practically stopped active trading.
All attention is focused on Wednesday, January 28, which promises to be a decisive day for the BTC rate in the coming month. Why did this date become 'red' on investors' calendars?
1. 🛑 Fed Meeting: The Moment of Truth for Liquidity
The main event on January 28 is the announcement of the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates.
Expectations: The market is pricing in an 81% probability that the rate will remain unchanged (3.50%–3.75%).
Intrigue: Investors are interested not in the number itself, but in the rhetoric of Jerome Powell. Rumors are circulating in the corridors about unprecedented pressure on the head of the Fed from the Trump administration. Any hint at aggressive rate cuts in the future could send BTC to the $100,000 mark. Conversely, a 'hawkish' position (maintaining high rates) will provoke a drop to $83,000.
2. 🏛️ Legislative Push: Market Structure Bill
Just these days (January 27-28), the Senate Committee on Agriculture is holding final discussions on the bill regarding the structure of the crypto market.
What they are waiting for: A clear distribution of powers between the SEC and CFTC. This is what institutions have been waiting for years. The approval or positive movement on this issue will open the floodgates for billion-dollar investments in tokenized assets (RWA).
3. 🍕 'Pentagon Index' and geopolitics
We are observing abnormal activity in Washington. Against the backdrop of tensions around Iran and the movement of the U.S. carrier group, investors fear that January 28 could be the date of new sanctions or political statements that will force markets to 'run to cash'.
📊 Current market sentiments
Fear & Greed Index 52 (Neutral) The market is indecisive. A complete calm before the storm.
Open Interest Decreasing Traders are closing positions to avoid liquidation during the volatility on January 28.
ETF Flows Outflow A slight capital outflow from IBIT (BlackRock) has been observed over the past 48 hours.
In 2026, the market became 'smarter'. Options barriers at levels $85,000 (support) and $94,000 (resistance) are now key benchmarks.
January 28 is the day when 'technical analysis' will give way to 'macroeconomics'. The best strategy now is to watch from the sidelines or set limit buy orders in the zone below $83,800 in case of a brief drop during the Fed press conference.
Overall, the entire week promises to be interesting. As of today, we are entering a phase of extreme volatility, where each day can change the trend for the month ahead.
🎙 Tuesday, January 27: Trump's Speech and 'Crypto Capital'
Donald Trump is making an important speech, where he is expected to touch on two topics: tariffs and cryptocurrency.
The essence: Trump confirmed last week in Davos that he wants to sign the Crypto Market Structure Bill. Tomorrow he may announce specific timelines or even name the new head of the Fed (Powell's term expires in May).
There may be sharp statements about 100% tariffs for Canada or China that could crash the U.S. stock market, which in turn would drag down crypto in the moment.
🏛 Wednesday, January 28: Fed and 'Powell's Pause'
🕒 Friday, January 30: Shutdown and Options Expiration
This is the most dangerous day of the week due to the overlap of two gigantic events:
1. Budget Deadline (Shutdown): At midnight on January 30, government funding ends. The Senate and House of Representatives are still arguing over border security funding. If an agreement is not signed, the U.S. will enter a partial shutdown.
2. Options expiration: The expiration of monthly contracts for BTC and ETH is coming. This is billions of dollars. Market makers will pull the price to the 'Max Pain' point to minimize payouts.
🛡 How to survive as a trader?
1. Lower your leverage: This week even 5x is a huge risk. Squeezes (sharp candle shadows) can be 3-5% in just a few minutes.
2. Stop-loss is law!!!
3. Hedging: It makes sense to hold part of the profits in 'safe haven' assets now. As we have already discussed, gold ($XAU) and tokenized stocks on Binance can be your life jacket if on January 31, the U.S. really 'turns off the light' in the government.
This is a week when those who know how to wait earn, not those who try to guess every candle.
