Anthropic hasn’t even rang the bell yet, and the market is already calling it a $2 trillion valuation. This gets interesting.
The key isn’t that Q2 revenue came in at $11.5 billion—up 14x year over year, which is basically obvious. What’s really wild is that investment banks are using a forecast of $190 billion to $200 billion in expected revenue for 2028 to set the price—effectively having today’s investors pay for a “4x again” story two years from now.
Even more subtle: early IPO meetings only talked about Claude and enterprise customers, saying nothing about valuation. But the secondary market has already circulated reports of private transaction pricing at $1.5 trillion (to be verified). Cooling on one side, heating up on the other—so which one is the truth?
Final question: when all AI giants use future-based pricing, does the fundamentals of 2026 still matter? Is this really a process of value discovery, or does everyone just assume they won’t be the last one holding the baton?
The key isn’t that Q2 revenue came in at $11.5 billion—up 14x year over year, which is basically obvious. What’s really wild is that investment banks are using a forecast of $190 billion to $200 billion in expected revenue for 2028 to set the price—effectively having today’s investors pay for a “4x again” story two years from now.
Even more subtle: early IPO meetings only talked about Claude and enterprise customers, saying nothing about valuation. But the secondary market has already circulated reports of private transaction pricing at $1.5 trillion (to be verified). Cooling on one side, heating up on the other—so which one is the truth?
Final question: when all AI giants use future-based pricing, does the fundamentals of 2026 still matter? Is this really a process of value discovery, or does everyone just assume they won’t be the last one holding the baton?