SPCX is now around 139.6u. I’ll keep an eye on this spot for now—I won’t chase.
A few days ago, it reclaimed the moving average around 137. At the time I was slightly bullish, and I said I’d wait for the momentum to play out and turn solid. Now looking at it, the price has risen by about two dollars, but that momentum hasn’t carried through.
On the 4-hour chart, it’s shifted from slightly bullish into a sideways range. On the daily chart, it has even flipped to a downward bias. Price has been trapped in a tight band between 139 and 141, repeatedly failing to break above 141.26.
More clearly, it shows in positioning: in one day, holdings shrank by nearly 10%. The longs aren’t adding—they’re pulling back.
The share of contract主动买单 (active buy orders) is less than half, and overall trading volume has also dropped by more than 20%. Fees have been negative for several consecutive candles; shorts are paying to hold it up, but longs don’t have the strength to push it. Even on the spot order book, the buy wall is only about 40% of the sell wall. Large net inflows are pinned near zero—plainly, there isn’t fresh money coming into this market.
This isn’t saying it will definitely fall. It’s just that going up requires others to lift the sedan, while going down has no takers to absorb. Both sides are struggling, so chasing longs here is generally not a great deal.
As I said: just watch first, and wait for capital to choose a direction. Either there’s volume and it can bite through 141, then we can talk; or it pulls back to the low and there are buyers stepping in, then we’ll see. Charging in now is using your own money to bet that others will come.
#spcx $SPCX
A few days ago, it reclaimed the moving average around 137. At the time I was slightly bullish, and I said I’d wait for the momentum to play out and turn solid. Now looking at it, the price has risen by about two dollars, but that momentum hasn’t carried through.
On the 4-hour chart, it’s shifted from slightly bullish into a sideways range. On the daily chart, it has even flipped to a downward bias. Price has been trapped in a tight band between 139 and 141, repeatedly failing to break above 141.26.
More clearly, it shows in positioning: in one day, holdings shrank by nearly 10%. The longs aren’t adding—they’re pulling back.
The share of contract主动买单 (active buy orders) is less than half, and overall trading volume has also dropped by more than 20%. Fees have been negative for several consecutive candles; shorts are paying to hold it up, but longs don’t have the strength to push it. Even on the spot order book, the buy wall is only about 40% of the sell wall. Large net inflows are pinned near zero—plainly, there isn’t fresh money coming into this market.
This isn’t saying it will definitely fall. It’s just that going up requires others to lift the sedan, while going down has no takers to absorb. Both sides are struggling, so chasing longs here is generally not a great deal.
As I said: just watch first, and wait for capital to choose a direction. Either there’s volume and it can bite through 141, then we can talk; or it pulls back to the low and there are buyers stepping in, then we’ll see. Charging in now is using your own money to bet that others will come.
#spcx $SPCX