SPCX is currently hanging around 139u, still lying in that dip around 148 that got smashed down. It won’t break 135 and it won’t touch 144. First the conclusion—I'm not chasing a high here, but I’m holding a relatively bullish stance while waiting for the right breath.
The most striking part isn’t the price—it’s the contract positioning. The open interest has cut down again for a day, down by nearly 10%. The leverage that chased at the 148 move has basically been washed out. But the money hasn’t left—active buy-side participation has risen to 74%. The long/short contract ratio is 2.9, and within seven hours, actively matched trades are up by 70%. Open interest is shrinking while bids are still entering—this doesn’t look like a “running away” situation at all.
The funding rate is still negative. The long side isn’t crowded at all, and the price has even moved back above the moving average. On the spot order book, the quantity bid at the first level is more than twice that of the other side. In this bottom at 135, after all these days of smashing, nobody has been able to smash through.
In plain terms: as it goes down, there are buyers stepping in; as it goes up, there are no liquidations and no crowded longs. What’s missing is one burst of momentum to knock 144 aside. Before a breakout, don’t chase—wait while squatting and look for a pullback. Only when 144 breaks upward on volume will that truly mark a shift in trend.
There’s only one risk—if 135 gets smashed through, the box range collapses. Then don’t be stubborn; get out first and reassess. In this dip, I’m leaning long and waiting for the breakout.
#spcx $SPCX
The most striking part isn’t the price—it’s the contract positioning. The open interest has cut down again for a day, down by nearly 10%. The leverage that chased at the 148 move has basically been washed out. But the money hasn’t left—active buy-side participation has risen to 74%. The long/short contract ratio is 2.9, and within seven hours, actively matched trades are up by 70%. Open interest is shrinking while bids are still entering—this doesn’t look like a “running away” situation at all.
The funding rate is still negative. The long side isn’t crowded at all, and the price has even moved back above the moving average. On the spot order book, the quantity bid at the first level is more than twice that of the other side. In this bottom at 135, after all these days of smashing, nobody has been able to smash through.
In plain terms: as it goes down, there are buyers stepping in; as it goes up, there are no liquidations and no crowded longs. What’s missing is one burst of momentum to knock 144 aside. Before a breakout, don’t chase—wait while squatting and look for a pullback. Only when 144 breaks upward on volume will that truly mark a shift in trend.
There’s only one risk—if 135 gets smashed through, the box range collapses. Then don’t be stubborn; get out first and reassess. In this dip, I’m leaning long and waiting for the breakout.
#spcx $SPCX