SOL is now around 75.2u. At this spot, I’m more cautious than a few days ago—I won’t pick a side yet.
In my earlier posts, I said it was too bullish and you shouldn’t chase. Back then, the funds were indeed flowing back. But this time the ledger has flipped: over the past nearly three hours, large spot orders have net flowed out significantly. In 12 candlesticks, not a single one managed to register net inflow, and the spot主动/主动盤 is clearly more sell-leaning. In plain terms: no matter how hot the sentiment is, if the money isn’t coming in, it isn’t coming in.
The bullish news is still being discussed: Israel’s largest bank is set to launch SOL trading, the ETF and low-inflation narrative are being hyped, and KOLs are overwhelmingly bullish. The problem is that the price almost doesn’t react to any of this. It’s been grinding around 76 for more than a day and still can’t get up. When there’s no response to good news, that itself is a signal.
The derivatives side also doesn’t help longs: the funding rate is hovering around the zero line, and the basis has flipped negative. There’s no leveraged money chasing. Open interest is only slightly up, but price isn’t moving—this kind of “adding positions but prices don’t rise” pattern isn’t friendly to long positions.
Technicals are even more direct: price is below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and the Bollinger middle band has also been broken downward. ADX is only around ten points, which suggests there’s basically no trend—everything is being propped up purely by sentiment. So the risk-reward for chasing longs here is generally poor, and I’m not planning to catch a falling knife.
The key levels are these: first, regain 76 from above—that’s when you can talk about longs returning. Below, 74.6 must not break; if it breaks, look toward 73.5. I’m choosing to wait for the funds to give the answer.
#sol $SOL
In my earlier posts, I said it was too bullish and you shouldn’t chase. Back then, the funds were indeed flowing back. But this time the ledger has flipped: over the past nearly three hours, large spot orders have net flowed out significantly. In 12 candlesticks, not a single one managed to register net inflow, and the spot主动/主动盤 is clearly more sell-leaning. In plain terms: no matter how hot the sentiment is, if the money isn’t coming in, it isn’t coming in.
The bullish news is still being discussed: Israel’s largest bank is set to launch SOL trading, the ETF and low-inflation narrative are being hyped, and KOLs are overwhelmingly bullish. The problem is that the price almost doesn’t react to any of this. It’s been grinding around 76 for more than a day and still can’t get up. When there’s no response to good news, that itself is a signal.
The derivatives side also doesn’t help longs: the funding rate is hovering around the zero line, and the basis has flipped negative. There’s no leveraged money chasing. Open interest is only slightly up, but price isn’t moving—this kind of “adding positions but prices don’t rise” pattern isn’t friendly to long positions.
Technicals are even more direct: price is below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and the Bollinger middle band has also been broken downward. ADX is only around ten points, which suggests there’s basically no trend—everything is being propped up purely by sentiment. So the risk-reward for chasing longs here is generally poor, and I’m not planning to catch a falling knife.
The key levels are these: first, regain 76 from above—that’s when you can talk about longs returning. Below, 74.6 must not break; if it breaks, look toward 73.5. I’m choosing to wait for the funds to give the answer.
#sol $SOL