VELVET is around 1.15u now; over the past week it has pulled more than 140%. Honestly, at this level I don’t really dare to chase.
The trend itself is strong—the price is staying above the moving average, and on the four-hour chart it’s still pointing upward. From 0.48 it pushed all the way to 1.25; the momentum isn’t fake. But that’s exactly the problem: it’s risen too fast, and the pullback that should happen in the short term hasn’t happened.
The contract-side data isn’t that clean. Open interest jumped by more than 80% in a single day. Much of this rally was driven by leverage—funding rates have stayed positive, meaning longs have been paying to hold their positions. In terms of active buy/sell flow, the buy-side share is even less than half. When the price goes higher, sell-side becomes more主动; the chasing funds aren’t that decisive.
What’s even more important is the behavior of the large holders. When the price is pushed to high levels, the share of long positions in the “whale” accounts is still under 40%, and over the past seven hours it’s been shrinking. At highs, it doesn’t look like big players are adding—rather, accounts are reducing. It’s basically the chasing leverage capital getting trapped. This structure isn’t healthy.
So my stance is to watch and wait—don’t chase. After it’s already risen this much, the upside odds for buying high are too poor. I’ll wait for a pullback and see whether there’s someone ready to take it. If the pullback can’t be held, high-level volatility will amplify, and then the risk won’t be just a little.
At this current spot, it’s comfortable to buy only on a proportional pull-in.
#velvet $VELVET
The trend itself is strong—the price is staying above the moving average, and on the four-hour chart it’s still pointing upward. From 0.48 it pushed all the way to 1.25; the momentum isn’t fake. But that’s exactly the problem: it’s risen too fast, and the pullback that should happen in the short term hasn’t happened.
The contract-side data isn’t that clean. Open interest jumped by more than 80% in a single day. Much of this rally was driven by leverage—funding rates have stayed positive, meaning longs have been paying to hold their positions. In terms of active buy/sell flow, the buy-side share is even less than half. When the price goes higher, sell-side becomes more主动; the chasing funds aren’t that decisive.
What’s even more important is the behavior of the large holders. When the price is pushed to high levels, the share of long positions in the “whale” accounts is still under 40%, and over the past seven hours it’s been shrinking. At highs, it doesn’t look like big players are adding—rather, accounts are reducing. It’s basically the chasing leverage capital getting trapped. This structure isn’t healthy.
So my stance is to watch and wait—don’t chase. After it’s already risen this much, the upside odds for buying high are too poor. I’ll wait for a pullback and see whether there’s someone ready to take it. If the pullback can’t be held, high-level volatility will amplify, and then the risk won’t be just a little.
At this current spot, it’s comfortable to buy only on a proportional pull-in.
#velvet $VELVET