SOL is around 75.2 now. I’ll watch this level first and won’t chase.
The market structure and sentiment are completely at odds. Over the past two days, the news flow has been quite active: big banks are set to launch spot trading, ETF products are progressing, and institutions are also talking about disinflation. Even KOL sentiment has been pulled up a lot. But the price just doesn’t buy it—over the last 24 hours it’s actually dipped a bit.
The issue is capital. In the past 3 hours, spot net outflows have exceeded 1.7 million USD, and among the 12 candles there isn’t a single red one. Big orders are also moving out. On the futures side, the share of主动买单 (aggressive buy orders) is down to just a little over 40%, and the sell pressure is even more proactive. No matter how loud the bullish calls get—if nobody is really stepping in with real money, the price can only grind.
Technicals don’t need to be too complicated either. ADX is only around 10, which is basically no trend. The 4-hour timeframe is DOWN, and price is stuck below the 50 moving average. Volatility is increasing, but direction hasn’t shown up.
To put it plainly: good news hasn’t translated into capital follow-through. At this level, the bulls don’t have an obvious advantage. First, look at 74.6 below; if it breaks, then 74.3. On the upside, 76.3 is short-term resistance.
My stance is very straightforward: hot sentiment doesn’t mean price will move. Watch when the funds come back. Wait until spot flows switch from outflow to inflow and price regains stability above, then it won’t be too late to consider entering.
#sol $SOL
The market structure and sentiment are completely at odds. Over the past two days, the news flow has been quite active: big banks are set to launch spot trading, ETF products are progressing, and institutions are also talking about disinflation. Even KOL sentiment has been pulled up a lot. But the price just doesn’t buy it—over the last 24 hours it’s actually dipped a bit.
The issue is capital. In the past 3 hours, spot net outflows have exceeded 1.7 million USD, and among the 12 candles there isn’t a single red one. Big orders are also moving out. On the futures side, the share of主动买单 (aggressive buy orders) is down to just a little over 40%, and the sell pressure is even more proactive. No matter how loud the bullish calls get—if nobody is really stepping in with real money, the price can only grind.
Technicals don’t need to be too complicated either. ADX is only around 10, which is basically no trend. The 4-hour timeframe is DOWN, and price is stuck below the 50 moving average. Volatility is increasing, but direction hasn’t shown up.
To put it plainly: good news hasn’t translated into capital follow-through. At this level, the bulls don’t have an obvious advantage. First, look at 74.6 below; if it breaks, then 74.3. On the upside, 76.3 is short-term resistance.
My stance is very straightforward: hot sentiment doesn’t mean price will move. Watch when the funds come back. Wait until spot flows switch from outflow to inflow and price regains stability above, then it won’t be too late to consider entering.
#sol $SOL