BTC is currently around 62,960, hugging this week’s bottom range.
First, the biggest contradiction: spot capital has been flowing in, but the price won’t move. Over the past 3 hours, spot net inflows have stayed positive for 12 consecutive candlesticks. Over these same candles, large orders have also accumulated net inflows, and the bid walls on the order book are 4 times the sell walls—based on this alone, it looks like money is picking up at the lows.
But the derivatives side is a completely different picture. The active buy volume is down to only about 30%, the basis has turned negative, and the open interest delta squarely favors the shorts. In the last 15 minutes, large spot orders are still net selling. While one side is accumulating, the other side is suppressing on the futures side—so the price can only chop sideways.
What’s even more worth watching is leverage. On-chain leverage borrowing has surged more than tenfold within 12 hours. The spot leverage long/short ratio has climbed to more than 30x—this is leveraged money stacked into longs, not someone truly intending to hold spot. Once the price breaks down, the first to be squeezed will be these participants.
MACD is still arranged in a strong bearish pattern. Price is pressing below the moving averages, and every rebound hasn’t received structural confirmation.
So at this level, I won’t chase longs or rush into shorts. There is support at the low end, and there’s selling pressure at the high end—this zone is exactly in the middle. The key is whether the weekly low at 62,484 can be held. If it holds, then a rebound supported by continuous spot inflows is valid; if it breaks, the leveraged long side will start to unravel first.
Let the capital choose a direction—don’t guess.
#btc $BTC
First, the biggest contradiction: spot capital has been flowing in, but the price won’t move. Over the past 3 hours, spot net inflows have stayed positive for 12 consecutive candlesticks. Over these same candles, large orders have also accumulated net inflows, and the bid walls on the order book are 4 times the sell walls—based on this alone, it looks like money is picking up at the lows.
But the derivatives side is a completely different picture. The active buy volume is down to only about 30%, the basis has turned negative, and the open interest delta squarely favors the shorts. In the last 15 minutes, large spot orders are still net selling. While one side is accumulating, the other side is suppressing on the futures side—so the price can only chop sideways.
What’s even more worth watching is leverage. On-chain leverage borrowing has surged more than tenfold within 12 hours. The spot leverage long/short ratio has climbed to more than 30x—this is leveraged money stacked into longs, not someone truly intending to hold spot. Once the price breaks down, the first to be squeezed will be these participants.
MACD is still arranged in a strong bearish pattern. Price is pressing below the moving averages, and every rebound hasn’t received structural confirmation.
So at this level, I won’t chase longs or rush into shorts. There is support at the low end, and there’s selling pressure at the high end—this zone is exactly in the middle. The key is whether the weekly low at 62,484 can be held. If it holds, then a rebound supported by continuous spot inflows is valid; if it breaks, the leveraged long side will start to unravel first.
Let the capital choose a direction—don’t guess.
#btc $BTC