XAU is now around 4385, and both long and short positions are stuck at this level. I lean toward continuing to wait and observe.
First, the spot order book: the sell side is still stacked much thicker than the buy side. The buy volume is less than one-third of the sell volume, and compared with the past few days there’s been no real improvement. Price is moving along the middle of the range; the orders sitting above that need to be eaten are not shallow.
But on the futures side, it’s trying to work: in aggressive trades, the buy side accounts for more than 60%, and the long/short trade ratio has pushed toward around 1.7. These candles are clearly showing increased volume. Open interest is up nearly 8% in a day—money is definitely moving into the futures.
The contradiction is exactly this: while the contracts are adding positions and aggressive buy orders are also making an effort, the price still can’t break through the resistance area above. On the spot side, in the large-order capital flow, none of the recent few records are positive. The funding rate is basically lying at zero, which suggests this round of entry is not being driven by leverage-fueled sentiment, but more like real money betting on direction—yet it still hasn’t resolved anything.
To put it plainly: longs are testing the temperature in the futures, while shorts are pressing orders on the spot book—neither has convinced the other. Chasing either side from this position is basically handing over ammunition.
My choice: don’t chase; wait for direction. Only if volume increases and prices hold above the upper area can the longs be considered to have won. If price breaks down and takes out the lows, then we can talk about risk release. It’s more comfortable to wait until the range gives a clear answer before acting, rather than guessing hard right now.
#xau $XAU
First, the spot order book: the sell side is still stacked much thicker than the buy side. The buy volume is less than one-third of the sell volume, and compared with the past few days there’s been no real improvement. Price is moving along the middle of the range; the orders sitting above that need to be eaten are not shallow.
But on the futures side, it’s trying to work: in aggressive trades, the buy side accounts for more than 60%, and the long/short trade ratio has pushed toward around 1.7. These candles are clearly showing increased volume. Open interest is up nearly 8% in a day—money is definitely moving into the futures.
The contradiction is exactly this: while the contracts are adding positions and aggressive buy orders are also making an effort, the price still can’t break through the resistance area above. On the spot side, in the large-order capital flow, none of the recent few records are positive. The funding rate is basically lying at zero, which suggests this round of entry is not being driven by leverage-fueled sentiment, but more like real money betting on direction—yet it still hasn’t resolved anything.
To put it plainly: longs are testing the temperature in the futures, while shorts are pressing orders on the spot book—neither has convinced the other. Chasing either side from this position is basically handing over ammunition.
My choice: don’t chase; wait for direction. Only if volume increases and prices hold above the upper area can the longs be considered to have won. If price breaks down and takes out the lows, then we can talk about risk release. It’s more comfortable to wait until the range gives a clear answer before acting, rather than guessing hard right now.
#xau $XAU