#美国8月一年期通胀预期升至4.3%
This data is skewed toward bearish risk assets, especially rate-cut trades in the U.S. stock market and the crypto market.
U.S. August one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.3%, above July’s 4.2%; meanwhile, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell from 55.2 in July to 51.0. Five-year inflation expectations remained at 3.3%, indicating that near-term inflation concerns are rising, but long-term inflation expectations have not further deteriorated for now. The backdrop is renewed impact on consumer expectations from the Middle East conflict, energy prices, and cost-of-living pressures.
Market impact
1. The Fed: room for rate cuts is squeezed
This is the most critical point. July CPI already fell to 3.4%, with core CPI at 2.5%. Recent data had originally supported holding rates steady in September, and possibly even further cuts later.
Now, one-year inflation expectations have risen back to 4.3%, which suggests the Fed is more worried that inflation expectations may re-de-anchor. Therefore, in the near term, it is unfavorable for aggressive rate cuts.
2. U.S. equities: short-term bearish, but it doesn’t necessarily change the bull market
At the moment, we have a fairly contradictory combination:
Actual inflation falling + consumer confidence declining + inflation expectations rising
This is quite close to a “stagflation concern” signal. Especially since the yield on U.S. 30-year Treasury auctions has already reached 5.216%, the highest level since 2001—so upward pressure on long-term rates remains evident.
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$BTC Trading strategy
Long
After 62,780 holds steady, go long as the trend turns upward.
Stop loss: 62,450
Target: around 64,000—scale out or take profit
【👇Click below to start trading👇】
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$ETH Trading strategy
Long
After 1,879 holds steady, go long.
Stop loss: 1,868
Target 1: around 1,925—scale out or take profit
【👇Click below to start trading👇】
---------
$SPCX Trading strategy
Long
Pull back to 138 and hold steady, then open a long position.
Stop loss: 135
Target: around 153—scale out or take profit
【Thanks for your likes 🌹 Follow 🌹 Repost! These are also my motivation to keep updating 🚀🚀】
【👇Click below to start trading👇】
This data is skewed toward bearish risk assets, especially rate-cut trades in the U.S. stock market and the crypto market.
U.S. August one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.3%, above July’s 4.2%; meanwhile, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell from 55.2 in July to 51.0. Five-year inflation expectations remained at 3.3%, indicating that near-term inflation concerns are rising, but long-term inflation expectations have not further deteriorated for now. The backdrop is renewed impact on consumer expectations from the Middle East conflict, energy prices, and cost-of-living pressures.
Market impact
1. The Fed: room for rate cuts is squeezed
This is the most critical point. July CPI already fell to 3.4%, with core CPI at 2.5%. Recent data had originally supported holding rates steady in September, and possibly even further cuts later.
Now, one-year inflation expectations have risen back to 4.3%, which suggests the Fed is more worried that inflation expectations may re-de-anchor. Therefore, in the near term, it is unfavorable for aggressive rate cuts.
2. U.S. equities: short-term bearish, but it doesn’t necessarily change the bull market
At the moment, we have a fairly contradictory combination:
Actual inflation falling + consumer confidence declining + inflation expectations rising
This is quite close to a “stagflation concern” signal. Especially since the yield on U.S. 30-year Treasury auctions has already reached 5.216%, the highest level since 2001—so upward pressure on long-term rates remains evident.
-----------
$BTC Trading strategy
Long
After 62,780 holds steady, go long as the trend turns upward.
Stop loss: 62,450
Target: around 64,000—scale out or take profit
【👇Click below to start trading👇】
-------
$ETH Trading strategy
Long
After 1,879 holds steady, go long.
Stop loss: 1,868
Target 1: around 1,925—scale out or take profit
【👇Click below to start trading👇】
---------
$SPCX Trading strategy
Long
Pull back to 138 and hold steady, then open a long position.
Stop loss: 135
Target: around 153—scale out or take profit
【Thanks for your likes 🌹 Follow 🌹 Repost! These are also my motivation to keep updating 🚀🚀】
【👇Click below to start trading👇】