It seems like inflation has recently been coming down a bit. I originally thought the chances of the Federal Reserve raising rates would drop a lot, but instead, the probability of them hiking fell from 75% to 25%. However, long-term U.S. Treasury yields have actually surged to 5.216%, the highest level since 2001. Tell me—doesn’t that feel strange? Even though a piece of good news comes out, the bond market doesn’t buy it. It feels like it’s saying, “I don’t believe the Fed.” This is mainly because the term premium is being re-evaluated, and because the fiscal deficit is too large, the Fed is also shrinking its balance sheet, and AI development has been burning too much money. All of these factors make the market worry that inflation can’t be controlled and that the Fed’s credibility will be affected, which could push long-end yields even higher. When this situation spreads to the crypto world, it becomes even more direct: the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is running above 5%,

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#美国8月一年期通胀预期升至4 $ACE $BTC $BNB