š 2026.8.15 BTC Market Analysis: Weekend PositionsāDonāt Only Look at Direction
Many people who trade futures ignore one detail: funding fees.
On Friday, a bullish candle lifted prices, and market sentiment immediately turned into āit wonāt be dumped anymore, itās stopped falling.ā But the fact that it isnāt being dumped just means selling pressure has paused for nowāit doesnāt mean someone is prepared to keep pushing the market up.
When the U.S. stock market is closed, BTC usually gets much quieter. If you held your long positions from Friday night through Monday, using the typical 8-hour settlement cycle, you might experience around 9 funding-fee settlements during that time. Whether longs pay or shorts payāand how many settlements actually occurādepends on the fee rate direction at the time and the contract rules, but the cost of this position canāt be ignored.
Especially for isolated margin. Funding fees keep being deducted from your margin, and after a few days youāll find the liquidation price getting closer and closer. Thatās not surprising. You may still be waiting for the direction to play out, but your costs keep rising, and the psychological pressure grows along with them.
So Iāve always felt that before opening a trade, you shouldnāt first think about āhow much you can make,ā but rather where your stop-loss goes. Profit is not controllableāat least the entry cost and your maximum loss can be decided by you.
Right now, the 1-hour, 4-hour, 8-hour, and daily structures all lean bearish. Chasing shorts, you fear a sudden rally on Monday; going long, you need a good enough cost basis. In this situation, the biggest taboo is to open in the middle no matter what.
Around 62,000 is still the last line of defense in my eyes. If it breaks, the area below is when you should start looking at the 50-thousands. For the short-term short positions I had around 65,000, I plan to take full profit at 62,200ānear the low from about four hours ago. Keep holding the higher-timeframe low-multiple swing shorts.
Donāt rush counter-trend longs. Iāll place a long order at 62,000, with the stop-loss at 60,500. If it doesnāt reach your cost basis, I wonāt chase. Iād rather miss the trade than turn ābuying the dipā into a loss where āslippage/fees and funding feesā stack together.
Now about the orders on the book: Coinbase has a spot buy order of over four million USD around 62,400, and OKX has a spot sell order of over two million USD around 63,300. Based on the current order flow, I temporarily set my weekend observation zone at 62,400ā63,300, but the orders can be withdrawn at any time. Donāt treat them as an absolute boundary.
What you can do right now isnāt complicated: set your short so itās at least break-even, and wait to take profit around 62,200. If you want to go long, wait for your own cost basis.
The above is only my personal market analysis and trading thoughts, and does not constitute any investment advice. Please control your position size and risk according to your own circumstances.
#BTC #ęÆē¹åø # Market Analysis
Many people who trade futures ignore one detail: funding fees.
On Friday, a bullish candle lifted prices, and market sentiment immediately turned into āit wonāt be dumped anymore, itās stopped falling.ā But the fact that it isnāt being dumped just means selling pressure has paused for nowāit doesnāt mean someone is prepared to keep pushing the market up.
When the U.S. stock market is closed, BTC usually gets much quieter. If you held your long positions from Friday night through Monday, using the typical 8-hour settlement cycle, you might experience around 9 funding-fee settlements during that time. Whether longs pay or shorts payāand how many settlements actually occurādepends on the fee rate direction at the time and the contract rules, but the cost of this position canāt be ignored.
Especially for isolated margin. Funding fees keep being deducted from your margin, and after a few days youāll find the liquidation price getting closer and closer. Thatās not surprising. You may still be waiting for the direction to play out, but your costs keep rising, and the psychological pressure grows along with them.
So Iāve always felt that before opening a trade, you shouldnāt first think about āhow much you can make,ā but rather where your stop-loss goes. Profit is not controllableāat least the entry cost and your maximum loss can be decided by you.
Right now, the 1-hour, 4-hour, 8-hour, and daily structures all lean bearish. Chasing shorts, you fear a sudden rally on Monday; going long, you need a good enough cost basis. In this situation, the biggest taboo is to open in the middle no matter what.
Around 62,000 is still the last line of defense in my eyes. If it breaks, the area below is when you should start looking at the 50-thousands. For the short-term short positions I had around 65,000, I plan to take full profit at 62,200ānear the low from about four hours ago. Keep holding the higher-timeframe low-multiple swing shorts.
Donāt rush counter-trend longs. Iāll place a long order at 62,000, with the stop-loss at 60,500. If it doesnāt reach your cost basis, I wonāt chase. Iād rather miss the trade than turn ābuying the dipā into a loss where āslippage/fees and funding feesā stack together.
Now about the orders on the book: Coinbase has a spot buy order of over four million USD around 62,400, and OKX has a spot sell order of over two million USD around 63,300. Based on the current order flow, I temporarily set my weekend observation zone at 62,400ā63,300, but the orders can be withdrawn at any time. Donāt treat them as an absolute boundary.
What you can do right now isnāt complicated: set your short so itās at least break-even, and wait to take profit around 62,200. If you want to go long, wait for your own cost basis.
The above is only my personal market analysis and trading thoughts, and does not constitute any investment advice. Please control your position size and risk according to your own circumstances.
#BTC #ęÆē¹åø # Market Analysis
