$BTC The most tormenting part of the current market isn’t the people holding positions—it’s the ones who watched it go from $64000 to $65000, then waited for it to come back to $63000, but still haven’t taken action. If you chase, you’re afraid of catching a falling knife; if you don’t, you’re afraid it will bounce back to $66000, and you’ll keep comforting yourself that it’s not really missing out.
Over the past 30 days, $BTC has hardly gone anywhere, moving from $63800 to $63013. But on July 22 it touched $66520—people who chased in at that level are currently down about 5%. Back then, trading volume topped $30B; more recently it’s shrunk to around $19B. A rebound without volume isn’t really worth getting excited about—this is probably the only thing we can be sure of right now.
What I care more about is this: around $63000 there’s some support, but the buyers aren’t proactively pulling it up. When the sideways consolidation ends, we need two things—$62000–$63000 has to hold, and volume must return to $25B or higher. When both conditions show up together, that’s a decent entry point. Conversely, if it breaks below $62000 on high volume, the next stop looks like $60000. After all, since it fell from the ATH of $126080 by half, a trend reversal can’t be completed in just one day.
With the same amount of money, which would you choose? Enter in batches near $63000, endure the slow grind down to $60000—the pain of the decline—so you get earlier shares; or wait until it recovers $65000 and then chase, giving up potential profit to buy confirmation of the trend? One option costs time, the other costs space. Choosing wrong is normal too—$BTC is simply frustratingly tangled right now.
Over the past 30 days, $BTC has hardly gone anywhere, moving from $63800 to $63013. But on July 22 it touched $66520—people who chased in at that level are currently down about 5%. Back then, trading volume topped $30B; more recently it’s shrunk to around $19B. A rebound without volume isn’t really worth getting excited about—this is probably the only thing we can be sure of right now.
What I care more about is this: around $63000 there’s some support, but the buyers aren’t proactively pulling it up. When the sideways consolidation ends, we need two things—$62000–$63000 has to hold, and volume must return to $25B or higher. When both conditions show up together, that’s a decent entry point. Conversely, if it breaks below $62000 on high volume, the next stop looks like $60000. After all, since it fell from the ATH of $126080 by half, a trend reversal can’t be completed in just one day.
With the same amount of money, which would you choose? Enter in batches near $63000, endure the slow grind down to $60000—the pain of the decline—so you get earlier shares; or wait until it recovers $65000 and then chase, giving up potential profit to buy confirmation of the trend? One option costs time, the other costs space. Choosing wrong is normal too—$BTC is simply frustratingly tangled right now.