CL is currently near 81.5u. I’m not taking sides here yet—waiting for direction.
First, the good news: after that earlier wave surged and then pulled back, price has now moved back above the 20- and 50-period short moving averages. In the past 24 hours it closed green and is up nearly 1.5%. The short-term move is a repair phase, not a sign that price is about to continue dropping.
But here’s the problem: open interest has been cut by 14% in a day, and over the last ~7 hours it’s shrunk by another ~4%. This rebound isn’t powered by fresh money coming in—it's driven by old positions being withdrawn. Funding rates have been negative for all 8 straight contracts, not a single one has flipped positive. In terms of active order flow, sell orders still slightly outnumber buys, and contract funding hasn’t shifted to net longs at all—it’s basically just waiting.
Now look at the large players: the number of accounts is tilted toward longs, but positioning is tilted toward shorts—so the whales themselves are split. In this kind of setup, no one can credibly call a one-way trend.
So I’m not chasing longs, and I’m not rushing to short either. If price holds the moving averages, shorts won’t get an advantage. Once OI stops the downtrend and buy-side demand returns, then getting in won’t be late. For now, observe and wait for the capital to make its choice.
#cl $CL
First, the good news: after that earlier wave surged and then pulled back, price has now moved back above the 20- and 50-period short moving averages. In the past 24 hours it closed green and is up nearly 1.5%. The short-term move is a repair phase, not a sign that price is about to continue dropping.
But here’s the problem: open interest has been cut by 14% in a day, and over the last ~7 hours it’s shrunk by another ~4%. This rebound isn’t powered by fresh money coming in—it's driven by old positions being withdrawn. Funding rates have been negative for all 8 straight contracts, not a single one has flipped positive. In terms of active order flow, sell orders still slightly outnumber buys, and contract funding hasn’t shifted to net longs at all—it’s basically just waiting.
Now look at the large players: the number of accounts is tilted toward longs, but positioning is tilted toward shorts—so the whales themselves are split. In this kind of setup, no one can credibly call a one-way trend.
So I’m not chasing longs, and I’m not rushing to short either. If price holds the moving averages, shorts won’t get an advantage. Once OI stops the downtrend and buy-side demand returns, then getting in won’t be late. For now, observe and wait for the capital to make its choice.
#cl $CL