UNI is hovering around 3.2u, right at the 24-hour low of 3.17 as it grinds. I’ll observe this spot first; I’m not rushing to pick a side.
First, the bearish side: the trend is still heading lower. The 7-day contract is down 20%, the MACD is a strong bearish setup, and the ADX is still rising—meaning the downside momentum hasn’t finished. Spot is even more direct: 3-hour net outflows of 16 million, and the past 12 candles have all been net outflows. Big orders are also selling. As long as the funds haven’t returned, don’t talk about a reversal.
But there’s an interesting detail on the chart: open interest has dropped 3.5% while price is falling in sync—an obvious short “capitulation” quadrant. The 4H read is basically “exhaustion.” At the same time, leveraged borrowing has surged 177% within 12 hours, with the long/short ratio jumping to 85. That suggests someone is adding leverage and buying near the lows against the trend. Downside momentum seems to be weakening, but this is “catching” rather than “counterattacking.”
On the news front, it’s actually somewhat bullish. V4 and Robinhood Chain are being pitched as liquidity engines, and there’s also the revenue buyback narrative—sentiment is quite high. But on the other side, large UNI transfers into exchanges mean sell-pressure is still hanging in the air. Good news is out there, yet the price isn’t responding, which indicates the market is still waiting for funds to show up and take action.
So at this level I won’t chase shorts (it’s near the low and momentum looks exhausted, so shorting here isn’t great value) and I won’t try to bottom-pick (spot big orders are still flowing out with no confirmation). The key is one thing: when will spot capital return, and can it hold this low at 3.175? I’ll act only after confirmation.
#uni $UNI
First, the bearish side: the trend is still heading lower. The 7-day contract is down 20%, the MACD is a strong bearish setup, and the ADX is still rising—meaning the downside momentum hasn’t finished. Spot is even more direct: 3-hour net outflows of 16 million, and the past 12 candles have all been net outflows. Big orders are also selling. As long as the funds haven’t returned, don’t talk about a reversal.
But there’s an interesting detail on the chart: open interest has dropped 3.5% while price is falling in sync—an obvious short “capitulation” quadrant. The 4H read is basically “exhaustion.” At the same time, leveraged borrowing has surged 177% within 12 hours, with the long/short ratio jumping to 85. That suggests someone is adding leverage and buying near the lows against the trend. Downside momentum seems to be weakening, but this is “catching” rather than “counterattacking.”
On the news front, it’s actually somewhat bullish. V4 and Robinhood Chain are being pitched as liquidity engines, and there’s also the revenue buyback narrative—sentiment is quite high. But on the other side, large UNI transfers into exchanges mean sell-pressure is still hanging in the air. Good news is out there, yet the price isn’t responding, which indicates the market is still waiting for funds to show up and take action.
So at this level I won’t chase shorts (it’s near the low and momentum looks exhausted, so shorting here isn’t great value) and I won’t try to bottom-pick (spot big orders are still flowing out with no confirmation). The key is one thing: when will spot capital return, and can it hold this low at 3.175? I’ll act only after confirmation.
#uni $UNI