$VELVET It’s around 0.94 now—this level I’m not chasing.
This move is truly fierce: within three days it doubled and more, going straight from 0.43 to 1.13. In seven days it’s up by nearly another 100%. Among smaller caps, this is one of the most aggressive runners. But after the spike, the momentum is clearly starting to loosen—the price has dropped from 1.13 back to 0.94. In the 15-minute chart, it’s already pinned below the 50 line; short-term momentum feels like it can’t quite connect.
The main issue is the fuel. The funding rate has been positive for 8 straight periods. It’s currently 0.045%, which is well above the average. The longs have been paying to hold up the market—things are getting crowded. The nominal value of open positions has shrunk by nearly 5% in seven hours, and leverage is quietly backing off. Even more important: on the spot side, net inflows from large orders are still basically zero. During this rally, there hasn’t been big spot capital stepping in to buy the dip; even the order book shows sell orders stacked thicker than buys.
In plain terms: once it’s already risen this far, every additional step up needs fresh money to take the baton. What we’re seeing is contract heat and long crowding—we’re not seeing particularly solid spot support.
So I won’t chase here. Either wait for it to pull back to digest the high-level supply and see the lows hold firm, or wait until large spot orders truly start entering before following. Chasing longs at the high point usually isn’t great on value-for-risk.
#velvet $VELVET
This move is truly fierce: within three days it doubled and more, going straight from 0.43 to 1.13. In seven days it’s up by nearly another 100%. Among smaller caps, this is one of the most aggressive runners. But after the spike, the momentum is clearly starting to loosen—the price has dropped from 1.13 back to 0.94. In the 15-minute chart, it’s already pinned below the 50 line; short-term momentum feels like it can’t quite connect.
The main issue is the fuel. The funding rate has been positive for 8 straight periods. It’s currently 0.045%, which is well above the average. The longs have been paying to hold up the market—things are getting crowded. The nominal value of open positions has shrunk by nearly 5% in seven hours, and leverage is quietly backing off. Even more important: on the spot side, net inflows from large orders are still basically zero. During this rally, there hasn’t been big spot capital stepping in to buy the dip; even the order book shows sell orders stacked thicker than buys.
In plain terms: once it’s already risen this far, every additional step up needs fresh money to take the baton. What we’re seeing is contract heat and long crowding—we’re not seeing particularly solid spot support.
So I won’t chase here. Either wait for it to pull back to digest the high-level supply and see the lows hold firm, or wait until large spot orders truly start entering before following. Chasing longs at the high point usually isn’t great on value-for-risk.
#velvet $VELVET