VELVET is around 0.94u now, and in the past 24 hours it’s still up by 28 points, but I can’t chase it at this level.
This move has been really strong—over three days it blasted from 0.42 all the way to the 1.13 high, more than doubling. But the problem now is that the price has already given back nearly 20% from the high. On the 4-hour chart it even dumped straight down by 13.85%. The momentum that drove the main surge is clearly leaking.
The 15-minute timeframe is even more direct—the price has broken below the 20 and 50 lines and is trading just under the moving averages. Short-term momentum has shifted from acceleration to pullback. That prior state where every single candle was pushing up has disappeared.
The futures side also shows signals. Open interest shrank by more than 3 points in a day, yet the price is still hovering near the high—this is typical after a spike: longs start to withdraw and fewer people are chasing. Funding/fees are still positive, meaning longs are paying, but it’s not extreme; the market hasn’t reached panic yet.
Order book wise, it’s pretty balanced: the 20 levels of buys and sells are almost split down the middle, with no one-sided dump. So this drop looks more like profit-taking exiting than a concentrated sell-off.
Conclusion: The trend hasn’t broken yet—both the 4-hour and daily charts still look bullish. But at the current level, chasing longs has very low cost-effectiveness. It’s already given back 17 points from the high; entering now is basically lifting the sedan for everyone who filled up earlier. Either wait for a pullback to around 0.7, where the prior consolidation zone is, and see if anyone steps in, or first check whether 0.94 can reclaim and hold. At this spot, it’s best to wait and chase only when it feels right.
#velvet $VELVET
This move has been really strong—over three days it blasted from 0.42 all the way to the 1.13 high, more than doubling. But the problem now is that the price has already given back nearly 20% from the high. On the 4-hour chart it even dumped straight down by 13.85%. The momentum that drove the main surge is clearly leaking.
The 15-minute timeframe is even more direct—the price has broken below the 20 and 50 lines and is trading just under the moving averages. Short-term momentum has shifted from acceleration to pullback. That prior state where every single candle was pushing up has disappeared.
The futures side also shows signals. Open interest shrank by more than 3 points in a day, yet the price is still hovering near the high—this is typical after a spike: longs start to withdraw and fewer people are chasing. Funding/fees are still positive, meaning longs are paying, but it’s not extreme; the market hasn’t reached panic yet.
Order book wise, it’s pretty balanced: the 20 levels of buys and sells are almost split down the middle, with no one-sided dump. So this drop looks more like profit-taking exiting than a concentrated sell-off.
Conclusion: The trend hasn’t broken yet—both the 4-hour and daily charts still look bullish. But at the current level, chasing longs has very low cost-effectiveness. It’s already given back 17 points from the high; entering now is basically lifting the sedan for everyone who filled up earlier. Either wait for a pullback to around 0.7, where the prior consolidation zone is, and see if anyone steps in, or first check whether 0.94 can reclaim and hold. At this spot, it’s best to wait and chase only when it feels right.
#velvet $VELVET