First, the conclusion: The altcoin season index at 70 does not mean that altcoins have become stronger—it means BTC itself has collapsed.
Today, two readings look like they’re fighting each other. The Fear & Greed Index is 29, landing in the panic zone. On the same day, the altcoin season index is 70; out of 50 sample coins, 35 have outperformed BTC over the past 90 days. How could panic and altcoins strengthening happen at the same time? Look at the denominator: BTC has dropped by 19.3% over the past 90 days on its own, so the bar for outperformance is already down at the floor. Outperforming doesn’t mean making money—many coins have only fallen less.
The liquidity market also does not support the idea of “a counterfeit rally starting.” Yesterday, the BTC spot ETF saw net outflows of $131 million. The four categories of assets combined had net outflows of $126 million. On the ETH side, there was only a modest net inflow of $6.72 million. BTC ETFs’ cumulative net flow over the past 7 days is still positive at $140 million, which suggests the outflows are something that happened in these past two days—not a trend of broad withdrawals. But it also doesn’t suggest that anyone is actively attacking.
To put it more plainly: liquidation data. In the past 24 hours, liquidations across the whole web totaled $181 million, including $135 million for long positions—74%—across 76,800 trades. The longs that were carried out in the panic zone were still the ones catching knives, not the shorts that missed the move.
So I wouldn’t treat this 70 as a buy signal. It measures relative performance—if the denominator is a total mess, it will naturally move upward on its own. If you want to judge whether the altcoin rally has actually started, you need to see whether incremental capital is flowing in; right now, there isn’t.
$BTC $ETH
Do you think a relative indicator like the altcoin season index is still worth using as a reference?
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