【In the late stage of a bear market, the biggest risk may not be buying too early—it may be not buying at all】
$BTC was rejected at $65,500 last week and still hasn’t reclaimed $64,000. Ongoing low liquidity and low volatility continue to compress conditions, and the short-term structure remains weak.
What you should be especially careful about next is the first breakout—because it could be a fake move. Whether it breaks up or down, you should first observe whether price can hold, rather than placing a directional bet in advance.
But if the market is already nearing the four-year bear market’s late stage, the key focus of strategy isn’t guessing the exact bottom—it’s planning a staged entry in advance.
Hoping for 50K is fine; the problem is that as BTC drops further, you keep moving your ideal buy price lower. By the time it finally bottoms, you may still have zero allocation in hand.
As for $ETH , it has already entered staking with more than 34% of the supply, and the queue for entry is far higher than the queue for exit—suggesting that long- and medium-term holding interest is strengthening. However, historically at the start of a bull market, BTC usually runs first, and ETH/BTC may still continue to weaken.
Therefore, at this stage I would split the strategy:
First, build positions in BTC in stages, then wait for ETH/BTC to offer a better relative price—or add ETH after BTC confirms the bear market’s late stage.
If you could only choose one kind of risk, would you accept “buying early and getting trapped short-term,” or “waiting for the lowest point but missing the entry entirely”?
$BTC was rejected at $65,500 last week and still hasn’t reclaimed $64,000. Ongoing low liquidity and low volatility continue to compress conditions, and the short-term structure remains weak.
What you should be especially careful about next is the first breakout—because it could be a fake move. Whether it breaks up or down, you should first observe whether price can hold, rather than placing a directional bet in advance.
But if the market is already nearing the four-year bear market’s late stage, the key focus of strategy isn’t guessing the exact bottom—it’s planning a staged entry in advance.
Hoping for 50K is fine; the problem is that as BTC drops further, you keep moving your ideal buy price lower. By the time it finally bottoms, you may still have zero allocation in hand.
As for $ETH , it has already entered staking with more than 34% of the supply, and the queue for entry is far higher than the queue for exit—suggesting that long- and medium-term holding interest is strengthening. However, historically at the start of a bull market, BTC usually runs first, and ETH/BTC may still continue to weaken.
Therefore, at this stage I would split the strategy:
First, build positions in BTC in stages, then wait for ETH/BTC to offer a better relative price—or add ETH after BTC confirms the bear market’s late stage.
If you could only choose one kind of risk, would you accept “buying early and getting trapped short-term,” or “waiting for the lowest point but missing the entry entirely”?