CRCL is now around 71.8u. It dropped from above 76 in a wave; over the past 4 hours, it has fallen by nearly 4.5%. The price is already below the MA20 and MA50. Short-term momentum is weakening.
What’s interesting is that during the drop, large holders were adding positions. In the past 7 hours, the number of long accounts increased by nearly a quarter. In the positions, the proportion of longs is over 80%. The passive buy order share is 56%, and trading volume has jumped by nearly one time—clearly someone is picking up orders lower down.
But I’m not in a hurry to chase. In the spot order book, the buy-side depth is only a quarter of the sell-side. The support below is actually quite thin. If another wave of sell orders comes in, the price will likely react very sensitively to the downside. Also, the open interest over these 7 hours has shrunk, suggesting leveraged funds are withdrawing. What’s taking over looks more like a large holder’s spot accumulation rather than a full-market effort forming yet.
So right now it’s like this: large holders are catching on the left side, but the price hasn’t stabilized and short-term momentum is still drifting downward. Chasing in at this moment is likely to get beaten up.
I’d rather see whether it can hold steady above 70, or reclaim the MA20. If it holds at the low end and the buy side follows through, then considering entries would feel much more comfortable. I’ll watch from here for now and wait for it to choose its direction on its own.
#crcl $CRCL
What’s interesting is that during the drop, large holders were adding positions. In the past 7 hours, the number of long accounts increased by nearly a quarter. In the positions, the proportion of longs is over 80%. The passive buy order share is 56%, and trading volume has jumped by nearly one time—clearly someone is picking up orders lower down.
But I’m not in a hurry to chase. In the spot order book, the buy-side depth is only a quarter of the sell-side. The support below is actually quite thin. If another wave of sell orders comes in, the price will likely react very sensitively to the downside. Also, the open interest over these 7 hours has shrunk, suggesting leveraged funds are withdrawing. What’s taking over looks more like a large holder’s spot accumulation rather than a full-market effort forming yet.
So right now it’s like this: large holders are catching on the left side, but the price hasn’t stabilized and short-term momentum is still drifting downward. Chasing in at this moment is likely to get beaten up.
I’d rather see whether it can hold steady above 70, or reclaim the MA20. If it holds at the low end and the buy side follows through, then considering entries would feel much more comfortable. I’ll watch from here for now and wait for it to choose its direction on its own.
#crcl $CRCL