Got up in the middle of the night to get some water and found the refrigerator door wasn’t closed properly. My first reaction wasn’t panic—it was, how long is this little bit of cold air going to keep leaking?
Now looking at $BTC , it feels pretty much the same.
The U.S. Bitcoin ETF saw 2,015 outflows in a single day and 3,890 over seven days. The money is moving out, and the price is being pretty obedient. $BTC is now at 62,652, and in the last 24 hours it’s down 1.98%. It touched the high at 63,940 and then slid down.
I’m more bearish on this move.
One reason is that derivatives are too hot: $8.0 billion in 24-hour trading volume, while spot is only $818 million. At 9.8x, anyone like me who’s been punished by a reversal knows it—there are all kinds of people in the order book who are desperately betting on the direction.
Another reason is that the funding rate is still positive, at +0.0008%. That means the longs haven’t given up. But the price is already hovering right around the low point near 62,573, which is uncomfortable.
$ETH , on the other hand, feels less awkward. ETF outflows are small on the day, but over seven days it’s still net inflow. The funding rate is still negative, suggesting someone over there is pressing the shorts in advance.
The shorts aren’t 100% correct either. If the ETF outflow turns out to be treated by the market like it’s nothing, and $BTC kicks back above 63,900, then I’ll admit I saw this move too early.
But right now, do you still dare to be hard optimist-facing this kind of chart?
$BTC $ETH
#ETF动态 #BTC Trend Analysis
This is my take. Your money is your decision.
Now looking at $BTC , it feels pretty much the same.
The U.S. Bitcoin ETF saw 2,015 outflows in a single day and 3,890 over seven days. The money is moving out, and the price is being pretty obedient. $BTC is now at 62,652, and in the last 24 hours it’s down 1.98%. It touched the high at 63,940 and then slid down.
I’m more bearish on this move.
One reason is that derivatives are too hot: $8.0 billion in 24-hour trading volume, while spot is only $818 million. At 9.8x, anyone like me who’s been punished by a reversal knows it—there are all kinds of people in the order book who are desperately betting on the direction.
Another reason is that the funding rate is still positive, at +0.0008%. That means the longs haven’t given up. But the price is already hovering right around the low point near 62,573, which is uncomfortable.
$ETH , on the other hand, feels less awkward. ETF outflows are small on the day, but over seven days it’s still net inflow. The funding rate is still negative, suggesting someone over there is pressing the shorts in advance.
The shorts aren’t 100% correct either. If the ETF outflow turns out to be treated by the market like it’s nothing, and $BTC kicks back above 63,900, then I’ll admit I saw this move too early.
But right now, do you still dare to be hard optimist-facing this kind of chart?
$BTC $ETH
#ETF动态 #BTC Trend Analysis
This is my take. Your money is your decision.