BTC breaks below the $63,000 key psychological level, with a low of $62,800. Spot trading volume has fallen to its lowest level since 2019, leaving the market in an extremely quiet, compressed state.
The core driver of the decline is waning buy-side demand.
Rekt Capital issued a key warning: BTC’s buying momentum in August has clearly weakened, and the 200-week simple moving average—an important long-term support level—is starting to wobble. In July, strong buying pressure still existed near the 200-week moving average, but after entering August, market sentiment shifted from rebound to wait-and-see, and the effectiveness of support has noticeably deteriorated.
On-chain data is also flashing red.
Large holders, often referred to as “whales,” reduced their positions over the past week, while at the same time the amount of BTC flowing into exchanges has increased—this type of fund flow often signals that selling pressure is building. One whale even added to its BTC short position for the fourth time; its total short exposure has already surpassed $110 million.
ETF flows have also worsened.
Yesterday, U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded a net outflow of $131 million, marking the second straight trading day of capital leaving. ARKB led with a $58.81 million outflow. Previously, a five-day streak of net inflows was reversed.
Rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran are continuing to suppress risk appetite.
Iran has taken a hard line, claiming that the Strait of Hormuz is under Iran’s control and management, and that any vessel without permission may not pass through. It also claims it has replenished missile and drone inventories beyond usage levels. Escalation of geopolitical conflict often boosts demand for safe-haven assets while weighing on market sentiment.
The macro picture is also not optimistic.
The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries has continued climbing, approaching 5%. BTC and real interest rates often show an inverse relationship. The probability that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady in September has risen to 78%, but expectations for rate cuts have repeatedly failed to materialize, and hopes for near-term liquidity easing are unlikely to be realized.
After $63,000 is lost, the market’s attention turns to the $60,000 area as the next key support level. $65,000 remains the resistance level that bulls must reclaim.
The core driver of the decline is waning buy-side demand.
Rekt Capital issued a key warning: BTC’s buying momentum in August has clearly weakened, and the 200-week simple moving average—an important long-term support level—is starting to wobble. In July, strong buying pressure still existed near the 200-week moving average, but after entering August, market sentiment shifted from rebound to wait-and-see, and the effectiveness of support has noticeably deteriorated.
On-chain data is also flashing red.
Large holders, often referred to as “whales,” reduced their positions over the past week, while at the same time the amount of BTC flowing into exchanges has increased—this type of fund flow often signals that selling pressure is building. One whale even added to its BTC short position for the fourth time; its total short exposure has already surpassed $110 million.
ETF flows have also worsened.
Yesterday, U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded a net outflow of $131 million, marking the second straight trading day of capital leaving. ARKB led with a $58.81 million outflow. Previously, a five-day streak of net inflows was reversed.
Rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran are continuing to suppress risk appetite.
Iran has taken a hard line, claiming that the Strait of Hormuz is under Iran’s control and management, and that any vessel without permission may not pass through. It also claims it has replenished missile and drone inventories beyond usage levels. Escalation of geopolitical conflict often boosts demand for safe-haven assets while weighing on market sentiment.
The macro picture is also not optimistic.
The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries has continued climbing, approaching 5%. BTC and real interest rates often show an inverse relationship. The probability that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady in September has risen to 78%, but expectations for rate cuts have repeatedly failed to materialize, and hopes for near-term liquidity easing are unlikely to be realized.
After $63,000 is lost, the market’s attention turns to the $60,000 area as the next key support level. $65,000 remains the resistance level that bulls must reclaim.
