In the past few days, there has been no real trading activity, and most of the time has been spent observing market trends. Currently holding USDC BTC SOL ETH.
The market sentiment is polarized:
1. One voice suggests that now is a festive moment for the capital market, with U.S. Treasury yields, U.S. stocks, and gold and silver all rising, as if it were an unprecedented event.
2. Another voice suggests that we are at the last moment of capital collapse, where all assets may suddenly plummet at a critical point, leaving chaos in its wake.
Let's analyze the specifics and see which viewpoint you support more:
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has always been regarded as the pricing cat of the global capital market, directly reflecting monetary policy expectations and actual interest rates, serving as the "gravity" of all assets.
U.S. stocks are high-risk, high-return assets that directly reflect a company's profitability and risk appetite, leading economic growth.
Gold/silver are safe-haven and anti-inflation assets, directly reflecting actual interest rates and U.S. dollar credit, serving as the "counterparty" of currency.
A surge in U.S. Treasury yields (and a drop in Treasury face value) means that corporate financing costs rise, and investors demand higher returns. Therefore, when U.S. Treasury yields rise sharply, U.S. stocks typically face enormous downward pressure, as investors might think, "Since I can earn 4-5% just by lying down (buying U.S. Treasuries), why should I take the risk to trade stocks/cryptos?"
A stable or moderately rising U.S. Treasury yield means that capital is more willing to purchase and hold high-risk assets for higher investment returns.
If we consider the above two scenarios as the market's game, then a sharp drop in U.S. Treasury yields, along with a significant drop in the U.S. dollar index, usually indicates an economic recession, which is what we least want to see.
Gold/silver, as safe-haven assets, are usually negatively correlated with U.S. Treasury yields, meaning that when U.S. Treasury yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, leading to a drop in gold prices. Conversely, if U.S. Treasury yields remain stable or fall, and inflation rises, gold prices will rise.
Now, let's make a hypothesis: if humans discovered massive gold reserves on Mars and could mine them efficiently, would gold crash? If gold crashes, could BTC replace gold as the new safe-haven asset?
Imagine an extreme scenario where the global internet goes down (but power remains), and the centralized credit system collapses, with humanity relying on radio waves and satellites to synchronize BTC consensus...
#交易 #金融逻辑
The market sentiment is polarized:
1. One voice suggests that now is a festive moment for the capital market, with U.S. Treasury yields, U.S. stocks, and gold and silver all rising, as if it were an unprecedented event.
2. Another voice suggests that we are at the last moment of capital collapse, where all assets may suddenly plummet at a critical point, leaving chaos in its wake.
Let's analyze the specifics and see which viewpoint you support more:
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has always been regarded as the pricing cat of the global capital market, directly reflecting monetary policy expectations and actual interest rates, serving as the "gravity" of all assets.
U.S. stocks are high-risk, high-return assets that directly reflect a company's profitability and risk appetite, leading economic growth.
Gold/silver are safe-haven and anti-inflation assets, directly reflecting actual interest rates and U.S. dollar credit, serving as the "counterparty" of currency.
A surge in U.S. Treasury yields (and a drop in Treasury face value) means that corporate financing costs rise, and investors demand higher returns. Therefore, when U.S. Treasury yields rise sharply, U.S. stocks typically face enormous downward pressure, as investors might think, "Since I can earn 4-5% just by lying down (buying U.S. Treasuries), why should I take the risk to trade stocks/cryptos?"
A stable or moderately rising U.S. Treasury yield means that capital is more willing to purchase and hold high-risk assets for higher investment returns.
If we consider the above two scenarios as the market's game, then a sharp drop in U.S. Treasury yields, along with a significant drop in the U.S. dollar index, usually indicates an economic recession, which is what we least want to see.
Gold/silver, as safe-haven assets, are usually negatively correlated with U.S. Treasury yields, meaning that when U.S. Treasury yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, leading to a drop in gold prices. Conversely, if U.S. Treasury yields remain stable or fall, and inflation rises, gold prices will rise.
Now, let's make a hypothesis: if humans discovered massive gold reserves on Mars and could mine them efficiently, would gold crash? If gold crashes, could BTC replace gold as the new safe-haven asset?
Imagine an extreme scenario where the global internet goes down (but power remains), and the centralized credit system collapses, with humanity relying on radio waves and satellites to synchronize BTC consensus...
#交易 #金融逻辑
