₿ CPI cooled, but Bitcoin didn’t. So why isn’t it breaking out? U.S. inflation gave risk assets almost exactly what they wanted. July CPI rose just 0.1% MoM, while annual inflation cooled from 3.5% to 3.4%. Core CPI also eased to 2.5% YoY. Then PPI reinforced the disinflation story, coming in flat MoM, versus expectations for a 0.2% increase. Stocks liked it. Treasury yields eased and expectations for a September Fed hike fell sharply. But $BTC barely moved and has been trading around $63–64K; it was recently quoted near $63,833. So what’s holding Bitcoin back? The first issue is that cooler CPI was largely expected. A 3.4% headline reading was essentially consensus, meaning there was no major macro surprise for crypto to price in. Second, monetary policy is still restrictive. The Fed funds rate remains at 3.50–3.75%, inflation is still above target, and markets have reduced expectations for an immediate hike rather than pricing a major easing cycle. Third and probably most important #Bitcoin is showing weak relative momentum. It briefly closed around $64,874 last Friday and moved above its 50-day moving average and an important downtrend line, but then slipped back below both technical levels. 🔥 My take: macro is becoming less hostile to $BTC , but “less hostile” is not the same as a fresh liquidity catalyst. The setup gets much more interesting if Bitcoin can reclaim $65K with real spot demand. Until then, the divergence remains hard to ignore: Inflation ↓ Fed hike expectations ↓ Stocks → ATH $BTC → ~$64K That tells me the next breakout probably needs more than another good #CPI print. #BTC Price Analysis#