Here we go again. The Washington Post’s headline is written so realistically, it’s like the Iran negotiations are some kind of supermarket discount sale.

Gold $XAU today is 4324, down 2 points. Oil $CL , on the other hand, is holding steady at 80.55, down 1%. The market’s first reaction was, “Safe-haven assets should be up,” so what happened? It’s always the same—once the news drops, retail investors rush in to take the bait, and institutions use the moment to sell into strength. A classic script.

Honestly, there’s no good trade to be made with Iran—this is the biggest certainty of all. Look at the chart—gold is down, oil isn’t up. That shows the market isn’t pricing this news seriously at all. If something really were to happen, $CL would have already flown. The energy market is more honest than any commentator. And this pullback in $XAU is actually a good thing—it leaves room for what comes next.

Don’t follow the news. Follow the price.

#Gold